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2022-2023 NBA Season Preview

By Zach Hales, CouchGM on August 21, 2022

CouchGM's predictions for the 2022-2023 NBA season are now live. Check out the full championship odds table here.

Our NBA predictor has been updated with new preseason ratings ahead of the 2022-2023 NBA season.

For now, these ratings assume that rosters stay as they are today, meaning I'm assuming that Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving both stay with the Nets AND that they both actually play (~62 games for Kyrie, ~75 games for KD) and that Donovan Mitchell stays with the Jazz. I also assume reasonable health for Kawhi, Zion and Anthony Davis (~60 games each). It also assumes that Ben Simmons plays again at his typical Philadelphia level (a big ask).

These ratings will be updated to reflect roster changes before the beginning of the season.

Eastern Conference

Projected Seed	Team	Projected Record	Championship Probability
1	Boston Celtics	62-20	16.15%
2	Brooklyn Nets	55-27	6.37%
3	Milwaukee Bucks	52-30	4.51%
4	Miami Heat	49-33	3.24%
5	Philadelphia 76ers	45-37	2.45%
6	Atlanta Hawks	44-38	2.30%
7	Toronto Raptors	43-39	2.05%
8	Cleveland Cavaliers	41-41	1.91%
9	New York Knicks	40-42	1.76%
10	Chicago Bulls	37-45	1.54%
11	Charlotte Hornets	36-46	1.44%
12	Indiana Pacers	34-48	1.37%
13	Washington Wizards	32-50	1.26%
14	Orlando Magic	26-56	1.07%
15	Detroit Pistons	23-59	0.99%

Last year's Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics start out as our favorite again this season. The addition of Brogdon in particular should help improve Boston's offensive issues (turnovers) in the Finals, assuming he stays healthy. Boston is one of the rumored KD destinations, but given these ratings, I'd actually recommend against trading for him. The rumored Jaylen Brown (a CouchGM favorite) and Marcus Smart for Durant would have no impact on Boston's projected win total and only slightly improve their championship odds (up to 17.23%). This team was already very good at the end of the season last year and I think they've done enough to address their weaknesses. They have a strong chance of winning it all this year without KD, so I don't think the cost of to acquire him is worth it.

Brooklyn seems (again) like they could be a really good team if they all actually play. But that has been the story of the last few years for them.

I'm also not convinced that New York should pay a huge price to trade for Donovan Mitchell. My projection says that a hypothetical trade of Quentin Grimes, salary filler (Evan Fournier?), and picks would only increase their win total to 43 (+3 wins), barely escaping the play-in. Not exactly the kind of return that is worth all of your picks for the next 7 years. But I also think New York's Jalen Brunson signing makes that Mitchell trade less appealing, because a Bruson-Mitchell backcourt is basically the same and would have the same problems as the Conley-Mitchell backcourt in Utah. I'm not sold on Mitchell as a championship level offensive engine, and apparently the math is not either.

Western Conference

Projected Seed	Team	Projected Record	Championship Probability
1	Golden State	61-21	13.76%
2	Phoenix Suns	58-24	8.93%
3	Los Angeles Clippers	54-28	5.75%
4	Memphis Grizzlies	51-31	4.03%
5	Dallas Mavericks	49-33	3.34%
6	New Orleans Pelicans	49-33	3.29%
7	Denver Nuggets	44-38	2.26%
8	Minnesota Timberwolves	42-40	2.00%
9	Utah Jazz	36-46	1.46%
10	Sacramento Kings	34-48	1.36%
11	Los Angeles Lakers	33-49	1.29%
12	San Antonio Spurs	29-53	1.16%
13	Portland Trail Blazers	25-57	1.04%
14	Oklahoma City Thunder	23-59	0.99%
15	Houston Rockets	19-63	0.93%

The reigning champion Golden State Warriors start as our top team in the West. I think a lot of Golden State's success this season depends on how much the young guys (Kuminga, Moody, and Wiseman) are able to contribute. Obviously Steph playing at a high level will raise the likelihood of another championship, but the youngsters will be needed during the regular season.

Phoenix is second in the West. It's still the same roster that had a league-best win total and net rating last season, so they could be really good again (just try to forget about that ugly Game 7). BUT... even though Phoenix is in a similar situation as Boston, I think they should pull the trigger on a KD trade. Unless the Suns are willing to allow DeAndre Ayton more freedom to create on offense (and Ayton can show significant improvement in that area), Phoenix has desparate need for an additional scorer outside of Booker and Paul, and the less responsibilty Paul has as a primary scorer the better. A trade of Bridges, Johnson, and Saric (or Crowder) for salary matching plus picks has very little no impact on Phoenix's preseason projections, I think having KD in the playoffs alongside Booker is worth more to Phoenix than is captured in these ratings.

New Orleans having a full season of CJ McCollum (and Zion) shoots into true playoff position, out of the play-in. It was clear at the end of last season that they were better than their seed.

Similar to the potential Donovan Mitchell to New York trade, I think Minnesota will be disappointed in the return they get on the Rudy Gobert trade (and so does the math). After finishing 7th last year, they project to finish 8th this year and once again in the 7-8 play-in game. Their projected win total did increase (+6 wins) after the trade, but considering that our model expected regression, they end up in basically the same place as last season. Utah's projected win total decreased by more (-8 wins) post-trade than Minnesota's increased, highlighting that Gobert was probably more valuable to Utah than to anyone else.

If you're looking to refresh your NBA trivia knowledge before the season starts, check out the NBA trivia quiz by our friends at All The Trivia

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