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NBA Power Rankings February 18, 2022

By Terry Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings. Our power rankings consider the season as a whole but weigh the last three weeks more heavily.

All-Star Break Edition

Most of the league has now played between 58-60 games (the Raptors have only played 57 and the Clippers have played 61) so we basically have 22-24 games or just about ¼ of the schedule remaining. Three teams (Phoenix, Golden State and Memphis) have created separation in the West but the current top seed in the East (Chicago) is only 4½ games ahead of the current #6 seed (Boston). That means there will be a lot of impactful games in the next 8 weeks, perhaps more so in the East but definitely for the play-in games in both conferences.

Two teams that will be watched closely over the final 8 weeks are the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers. Four big questions for Brooklyn: (1) When will KD return and will he be 100%? (2) Will NY change their rules to allow Kyrie Irving to play in home games? (NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has publicly questioned the logic in allowing an unvaccinated player for a team outside of NY to play in games at the Barclays Center but preventing an unvaccinated player for a NY team to play in the same game.) (3) When will Ben10 make his season debut? (4) When will Joe Harris return and will he be 100%? Three big questions for Philly: (1) When will James Harden return and will he be 100%? (2) How devastating will a James Harden/Joel Embiid pick-and-roll be? (3) How badly will Philly miss Andre Drummond’s inside depth off the bench and Seth Curry’s shooting? I think Brooklyn’s ceiling is unlimited if the answers to those questions are favorable. The league is surely crossing their fingers for a playoff series between the Nets and the Sixers.

The Top-5

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
1	Phoenix Suns	0	14.48%
2	Boston Celtics	0	4.85%
3	Chicago Bulls	+11	5.38%
4	Utah Jazz	+11	12.02%
5	Toronto Raptors	0	1.78%

The Suns lost only one game in January and have lost only one game in February. They have won 21 of their last 23 games. They are the likely #1 overall seed. Their crunch-time performance (24-3) is all-time great.

Boston is 9-1 in their last 10. Notwithstanding their home loss to the Pistons (on the second game of a back-to-back after a 48-point victory in Philly), the Celtics are hot, hot, hot. It appears that they have finally adapted to Ime Udoka’s system, but more than anything it appears that stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have learned how to thrive together. Tatum is probably the hottest player in the league not named DeMar DeRozan.

Chicago is the biggest riser this week, up 11 spots to #3. To say that DeMar DeRozan is hot right now is an understatement. He is historically hot. On Wednesday he became the first player in NBA history to score 35 points while shooting better than 50% from the field in seven consecutive games. Wilt Chamberlain had two 35 & 50% streaks of six games but he seldom shot from outside of the paint. DeRozan is teaching a Master Class in scoring. His mid-range game alone is worth the price of admission. It’s nice that ESPN and others are showing him the love that he deserves despite not hitting threes from the logo or posterizing would-be defenders with facial dunks.

The Utah Jazz have been steady all year and have an 12.02% CouchGM Championship Predictor score; however, the media seems more interested in the Donovan Mitchell/Rudy Gobert relationship than the 3rd best offensive rating in the league. Mitchell is playing better of late so expect the Jazz to stay right where they are and probably push the Grizzlies for #3 in the West.

Toronto enters the break 8-2 in their last 10. No coincidence that the strong play in Toronto is a result of the Pascal Siakam/Fred VanVleet pairing finding a groove.

6-10

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
6	Memphis Grizzlies	0	3.62%
7	Miami Heat	0	8.07%
8	Denver Nuggets	+2	2.82%
9	Milwaukee Bucks	+3	3.31%
10	Dallas Mavericks	+3	2.74%

Our season-long Championship Predictor is not as high on Memphis as other power rankings (because Memphis was slow for the first 6-8 weeks or so) but the Grizzlies are 8-2 in their last 10 and remain the #3 seed in the West.

Dallas is 7-3 in their last 10. Nikola Jokic continues to put up MVP numbers (he’s actually averaging 3 rebounds more than last year). Milwaukee, Golden State and Miami are all 6-4 in their last 10.

11-20

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
11	Golden State Warriors	-8	8.53%
12	Minnesota Timberwolves	-1	1.97%
13	Cleveland Cavaliers	-5	3.99%
4	Atlanta Hawks	-10	2.66%
15	Philadelphia 76ers	0	3.39%
16	Oklahoma City	+4	1.16%
17	Los Angeles Clippers	+1	1.94%
18	San Antonio Spurs	+3	1.35%
19	Los Angeles Lakers	-2	1.76%
20	New Orleans Pelicans	-1	1.08%

Atlanta’s drop from #4 to #14 is because their 7-game winning streak from a few weeks ago was followed by a 5-game losing streak. The 7-game winning streak drops off of the “who’s hot” piece of the pie and the Hawks drop to closer to where they probably belong. Bottom line for Atlanta: Trae Young is top-5 in the league in scoring, assists and PER. When he and his mates shoot well, they are tough for anyone to beat. But when their offense is below its season average, their below average defense leads to losses.

The following six teams are not officially eliminated but they will NOT be in the play-in games: Indiana, Detroit and Orlando in the East and Sacramento, Oklahoma City and Houston in the West. Normally I’d save this comment for the end of the rankings, but I need to insert it here because Oklahoma City has played well enough of late to rise five spots to #15. Further, they appear to have found something in rookie Josh Giddey. His 12.4 ppg is third on the team but he leads the team in rebounds (7.8) and assists (6.4). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the team’s clear star and max player, leads the team at 22.7 ppg, but his rebounds (4.7) and assists (5.5) are lower and Giddey doesn’t turn 20 until October!

The Timberwolves appear to be headed to a play-in game against either the Lakers or the Blazers. Minnesota is 2-0 vs. Portland (both wins coming on the road) and in a quirk of the schedule, Minnesota hosts Portland in a back-to-back on Saturday, March 5th and Monday, March 7th. The T-Wolves are 2-1 in the season series with the Lakers and their final meeting of the year is in Los Angeles on March 16th. Those three dates are certainly circled on the Timberwolves’ calendar.

Speaking of potential play-in games, another possibility is the Clippers vs. the Lakers. That could be good TV drama.

The Bottom-10

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
21	Portland Trail Blazers	+3	1.34%
22	Sacramento Kings	+4	1.07%
23	Charlotte Hornets	+2	1.70%
24	Brooklyn Nets	-2	2.07%
25	Washington Wizards	+3	1.231%
26	New York Knicks	-3	1.31%
27	Orlando Magic	-11	0.97%
28	Indiana Pacers	-1	1.24%
29	Houston Rockets	0	1.18%
30	Detroit Pistons	0	0.94%

The New York Knicks continue to implode. A lot of Stephen A. Smith’s rants are just part of his schtick, but the recent ones about his favorite team, the New York Knicks, have been particularly impassioned. The Knicks are headed to an offseason where they will be under internal and external pressure to improve their roster. CouchGM correctly predicted that the Knicks were one of the overvalued teams who would not reach their projected record. I wonder how the media will treat Tom Thibodeau one year after naming him coach of the year.

CouchGM is on the record as saying that Portland has a favorable schedule down the stretch. If Damian Lilliard gets a good report at his 6-8 week post-surgery evaluation (Lillard had abdominal surgery on January 13th), the Blazers could get hot and climb in the standings. Lillard’s absence has seen a substantial improvement in the play of Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic. They will miss Robert Covington though.

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