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NBA Power Rankings February 11, 2022

By Andrew Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings. Our power rankings consider the season as a whole but weigh the last three weeks more heavily.

The Top-5

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
1	Phoenix Suns	0	14.03%
2	Boston Celtics	+2	4.20%
3	Golden State Warriors	-1	9.24%
4	Atlanta Hawks	-1	2.51%
5	Toronto Raptors	+11	1.96%

Phoenix continues to run away from the rest of the league. Last night they beat the Bucks in their first game against each other since The Finals last year. It felt like a playoff game, and Phoenix sent a statement, leading by 20+ points for almost the entire 4th quarter. Was this the last demon to be exorcized before the Suns win the title this year? Milwaukee did trade for Serge Ibaka, hoping that a big body will prevent what we saw last night from happening in the Finals this year. Phoenix’s magic number is 4 to clinch at least a play-in berth. They should have that clinched by the all-star break.

This has been said dozens of times already, but the difference from the #1 seed in the East (currently Miami) and the first play-in team (Boston) is only 5 games. Boston has been playing well recently, with the 3rd best record in their last 10 games at 8-2. The problem is that the team they are chasing, Toronto, is tied with Phoenix at 9-1 in their last 10 games. Toronto and Boston are the 2 beneficiaries of the Nets’ current 10 game losing streak.

It’s worth noting that the “biggest” trade any of these 5 teams made was Toronto acquiring Thaddeous Young. That will be good for them because at some point they’ll likely have to face Joel Embiid if they want to advance in the playoffs.

6-10

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
6	Memphis Grizzlies	+8	3.86%
7	Miami Heat	+5	8.14%
8	Cleveland Cavaliers	0	5.57%
9	Utah Jazz	0	11.72%
10	Denver Nuggets	-4	2.99%

Utah got devastating news that Joe Ingles tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the year (and most of next year). They proceeded to flip his expiring contract to Portland and at least got something that may be useful, but mostly it was a money saving move. Utah has been struggling over the last couple weeks and this won’t help things. Ingles’ impact normally goes beyond the box score. On the surface you wouldn’t say that losing someone who averages 7.2 points and 2.9 rebounds in 25 minutes isn’t that big of a deal. He is shooting career lows in fg% and 3fg%, far off his 45.1% from 3 point range last year. That is what made him deadly.

Cleveland made the biggest splash of this group of teams, acquiring Caris LeVert basically for picks (Rubio, the only player they gave up, has barely played in half the games and was out for the year with a torn ACL anyway). Cleveland is currently tied for 2nd in the East, and LeVert is a solid player that could elevate their expectations. Will he be ok coming in and not being the top guy though? He was in Brooklyn (over 16 fga/game the 2 years before his trade) and again in Indiana (17.5 and 15.9 fga/gm). Chemistry may be an issue fitting into a team that has an all-star and other established 2nd and 3rd options, but it’s a good gamble.

11-20

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
11	Minnesota Timberwolves	-4	2.00%
12	Milwaukee Bucks	-5	3.67%
13	Dallas Mavericks	-2	2.57%
14	Chicago Bulls	-4	4.93%
15	Philadelphia 76ers	-10	2.75%
16	Orlando Magic	+6	0.93%
17	Los Angeles Lakers	+6	1.72%
18	Los Angeles Clippers	-5	1.80%
19	New Orleans Pelicans	+8	1.16%
20	Oklahoma City	-1	1.08%

Minnesota is 29-26. They are on pace to finish above .500 for only the 2nd time since 2005! Yes, that’s the Kevin Garnett days (you thought I was going to say Kevin Love). It’s been a long time. They are 16-10 at home and are 5th in the league in points per game at 112.9. Their defense is middle of the road. If they turn that up a notch they will be a tough first round playoff opponent.

Lots of the top Eastern Conference teams are in this group - Chicago, Milwaukee, Philadelphia. None of them are running away with it like the Suns are in the West. Chicago is hoping to get better through simply getting healthy. Milwaukee got Serge Ibaka, though it’s debatable how much that will help. He is a big body that gets 6 fouls a game though. That will come in handy against Joel Embiid and maybe Nikola Vucevic in the playoffs. They lost Pat Connaughton last night to a broken finger. The playoffs are still over 2 months away, so he may be able to be back by then.

Dallas decided to make a move. I said last week that if I were them I would try something because they are borderline great, but also don’t have enough to expect more than a first round playoff exit. They decided to dump Porzingis for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Dinwiddie may be insurance against Jalen Brunson leaving this summer, but Bertans is a 6’10” career 40% 3 point shooter, so he will help space the floor for Doncic.

Philadelphia made the blockbuster trade of the year. The results are mixed and will be heavily debated over the next few days and, really, through the offseason when Philly and Harden will talk about a contract extension. I’ll hit just a few points.

1. If Harden does sign the max contract extension, when it ends he will be 38 and be making $62M per year. Worst contract in NBA history? But can Philly really not offer that to him after trading for him? They did just trade an equally bad Ben Simmons contract, so maybe they don’t care about money?

2. Does James Harden even want to commit to anyone for 5 years? This is his 2nd trade demand in as many years, and he got traded to his preferred location each time. If he wasn’t happy last time, what makes us think he will be this time? Or is that a reflection of who he played with (Irving drama too much for him)?

3. Will Ben Simmons come back and play soon? If he does, I can’t imagine any scenario where this doesn’t look terrible on him and the NBA. He claimed mental health as the reason for not playing. If he really was mentally unwell, which millions of people deal with in the US alone, then that’s one thing. But if he comes back to play, then it sounds like he was just pouting and couldn’t handle the pressure, (not like New York will be any easier on him) and that is totally offensive to people who really do struggle with mental illness.

4. From a basketball standpoint, I think Brooklyn’s crunch time lineup in the playoffs will be Patty Mills, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Seth Curry, and Joe Harris. 3 shooters around Irving and Durant. Who do defenses leave alone to send double team help? Or do you live with Durant or Irving going one-on-one? The only chance of anything different is if the other team has Embiid. Wouldn’t you love to see Embiid posting up Simmons in the 4th quarter of a playoff game? On Philadelphia’s side, Harden is obviously an upgrade over the absent Simmons. Harden is often a willing passer (over 10 assists per game the last 3 years) so I think he and Embiid could form a scary pick and roll tandem. Both shoot well, both can dribble and get to the basket.

Portland trading everyone opens the door for my Pelicans to move into play-in contention. I still can’t believe that 3 of the 4 Western Conference play-in teams are currently 3+ games under .500, but that’s where we are.

The Bottom-10

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
21	San Antonio Spurs	-3	1.23%
22	Brooklyn Nets	-7	2.09%
23	New York Knicks	+2	1.29%
24	Portland Trail Blazers	-4	1.23%
25	Charlotte Hornets	-4	1.64%
26	Sacramento Kings	+3	1.11%
27	Indiana Pacers	-3	1.21%
28	Washington Wizards	-2	1.29%
29	Houston Rockets	-1	1.16%
30	Detroit Pistons	0	0.90%

Many of these teams were active at the deadline, most notably Indiana and Sacramento. Indiana sold off a lot of players (LeVert, Sabonis) and Sacramento spiced things up by adding Sabonis but trading away Hield and Haliburton. Like I said last week in my piece previewing the trade deadline, these teams have nothing to lose, really, so you might as well do something.

Sacramento swung for the fences, acquiring former all-star Sabonis but trading away CouchGM favorite Haliburton. Sacramento is only a game better than Indiana, but they are only 2 games out of the play-in bracket so I would expect them to push to make the playoffs - which would be their first time since the 2005-2006 season.

Indiana’s roster is almost completely turned over. They added Jalen Smith (Suns), Hield, Tristan Thompson, and Haliburton (Kings), and Rubio (Cavs, though he will likely never even show up to Indiana as he rehabs his ACL then is a free agent), and gave up Torrey Craig, Sabonis, Jeremy Lamb, Justin Holiday, Caris LeVert. Expect them to go the opposite direction as Sacramento as they tank to increase their draft odds.

Portland traded for more guards (enough already). If they can dump Bledsoe in the offseason their 2nd highest paid player would be Josh Hart at $12.9M. Expect them to swing for the fences this offseason (about time) and partner another star with Lillard. Hopefully this time it’s someone taller than 6’5. Seriously, they only have 7 guys taller than that. One is Joe Ingles who won’t ever play for them, and 4 of the other 6 are free agents after this year. Once those contracts expire Justise Winslow will be their tallest player at 6’6. Hello DeAndre Ayton? He is a restricted free agent though so Phoenix would match any offer given to him.

The Knicks remind me of the Lakers - a bunch of big names past their prime. Take out Julius Randle (or LeBron on the Lakers), who is their best player, and the rest are old has-beens (Derrick Rose, Kemba Walker, Taj Gibson or Westbrook, Carmelo, Trevor Ariza) or young guys too young or inexperienced or flawed to be the 2nd best option (RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, Obi Toppin or Malik Monk, Horton-Tucker, Stanley Johnson). The only difference is that the Lakers expected more out of Anthony Davis. Westbrook is the scapegoat, and he deserves a lot of it, but AD has been as much of a disappointment as Westbrook. His current year numbers are below his career average for points, rebounds, and steals, exactly the same on blocks, and above average on fouls and turnovers.

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