Image via NFL.com

NFL Conference Championship Preview

By the CouchGM Team: Andrew, Terry, and Zach on January 26, 2022

The CouchGM team and Super Bowl Predictor make picks for each of the Conference Championship games.

A quick check on the overall Super Bowl odds after the wild card round.

Team	Super Bowl Probability
Kansas City Chiefs	42.74%
Cincinnati Bengals	22.41%
Los Angeles Rams	21.90%
San Francisco 49ers	12.95%

And here’s how everybody has fared so far:

Predictor	Correct Picks	Incorrect Picks
Andrew	7	3
Zach	7	3
Terry	6	4
Super Bowl Predictor	5	5

Rough week for the model, which went 0-4. 3 of the model’s top-4 remaining teams lost last week.

Zach correctly picked only Cincinnati. Terry correctly picked only Los Angeles. Andrew correctly picked Los Angeles and Kansas City.

Zach: Obviously I'm bummed that my Super Bowl choice Buffalo was eliminated. But I'm not sad that I chose Buffalo (coulda been worse, I could've picked Green Bay or *shudders* Arizona). Buffalo has looked like the 2nd best team in the playoffs, behind only Kansas City. Maybe even the best. If not for 13 seconds of really bad defense and an all-time performance from some guy named Patrick Mahomes, Buffalo would be in prime position to win the Super Bowl. But two things are absolutely certain:

1) That Buffalo - Kansas City game was awesome

2) Josh Allen is legit

AFC Championship Game

Cincinnati at Kansas City

Game Predictor:

Team	Win Probability
Kansas City Chiefs	65.60%
Cincinnati Bengals	34.40%

Andrew:

Congratulations to Kansas City for hosting the AFC Championship Game for an NFL record 4th consecutive year. They won 2 of the first 3, with the only loss being the memorable OT game against the Patriots (who went on to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl). That Patriots vs Chiefs game was eerily similar to last week’s Chiefs vs Bills game

Patriots TD with 3:32 left to take a 3 point lead

Chiefs TD with 2:03 left to take a 4 point lead

Patriots TD with 39 seconds left to take a 3 point lead

Chiefs FG with 8 seconds left to force OT

Patriots score a TD on the opening drive of OT to win, without giving the Chiefs a chance to match it.

Looking to this week’s game, I fully expect the Chiefs to win and get to their 3rd consecutive Super Bowl. Could it be a rematch of the 2019-2020 Super Bowl where they beat the 49ers? We’ll see. Joe Burrow has looked mighty impressive and has given Cincinnati all the confidence going forward that he is their guy (unlike Ryan Tannehill or Kyler Murray). Cincinnati would have to play a flawless game to keep up with the Chiefs. If the offensive line repeats ther 9 sack performance then we could be in for a blowout. Barring a Mahomes letdown, I think the Chiefs win by double digits. 30-17.

Terry:

Why the Chiefs will win:

The Chiefs are at home.

The Chiefs offense is hot. Last week they pulled a rabbit out of their hat when they (1) took the lead with a TD inside of the final 2 minutes, (2) moved into FG position in the final 13 seconds and then (3) scored a TD on the opening drive of OT. That was an amazing 17 points against the #1 defense in the NFL. This week they play a strong Cincinnati defense but facing Ryan Tannehill is nothing like facing Patrick Mahomes. After the Chiefs come down from their inevitable hangover, they should rev up the offense and again score more points than their opponent.

Last week the Chiefs offense had 11 possessions. They punted twice, missed one FG and scored on 8 drives (73%).

The Chiefs will correct the mistakes they made in the week 17 loss to the Bengals in Cincinnati. In that game Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce had a combined 11 catches for 65 yards. You can count on Andy Reid, Eric Bieniemy and Patrick Mahomes to scheme and execute their way around that happening again.

Why the Bengals will win:

They are unafraid of the stage. They relish the underdog role.

The Chiefs defense faces another impressive young QB in Joe Burrow. He and the Bengals offense pulled their own rabbit out of their hat in winning despite giving up 9 sacks.

The Bengals offense lit up the Chiefs defense in their week 17 win.

The Bengals defense faced 11 Tennessee drives and gave up points on only 3 of them (27%).

Summary

A hot Kansas City offense faces another strong defense and wins.

Zach:

Kansas City. I would love to pick Cincinnati again, and the Bengals did beat the Chiefs not that long ago in Week 17 (a loss that cost the Chiefs the #1 seed in the AFC). But that win required a superstar performance from Joe Burrow (30/39, 446 yards, 4 TDs) and was at home. This time it’ll be on the road. And Mahomes has leveled up so far this postseason: 75.9% completion percentage (63/83), 9.4 yard per attempt, 8 TD vs 1 INT, Passer Rating of 131.7. This is the most productive two-game stretch of his career coming at the most important time. It’s easy to say this is the best he’s ever been. A letdown after such an amazing finish is only natural (RIP 2021 Gonzaga Basketball), but with a week of preparation, I expect Mahomes to light it up again on Sunday and make it back to the Super Bowl.

NFC Championship Game

San Francisco at Los Angeles

Game Predictor:

Team	Win Probability
Los Angeles Rams	62.85%
San Francisco 49ers	37.15%

Andrew:

All the pressure is on the Rams this game. 1) If they win they get to play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium. 2) To win they’ll have to beat the 49ers, who they’ve lost to 6 games in a row. The last time they beat them was in 2018! 3) They traded for Stafford to win the Super Bowl and show he is better than Jared Goff, who did succeed in getting to the Super Bowl (but lost). It'll be mighty disappointing if Stafford can’t at least get them there. 4) These mostly similar 49ers were in the Super Bowl only 2 years ago. The Rams were in the Super Bowl the year before that, but their team today is almost totally different than that Super Bowl team. The 49ers want to get back to the Super Bowl. The Rams just want to get to the Super Bowl. 5) The 49ers can’t help but look ahead and know they’ll likely be playing the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and would love some revenge for the loss 2 years ago. 6) Maybe the biggest hurdle is that the 49ers came into Los Angeles a mere 3 weeks ago and won in overtime when the Rams had a division title on the line and had the chance to eliminate the 49ers from even making the playoffs. Garoppolo and Stafford both had 2 INT’s that day, so both will need to be better this week. Garoppolo has the big stage experience, but I think the buck stops here and it’s the Rams winning 27-24.

Side note: once my prediction comes to pass, this year will be 2 years in a row that a team will play the Super Bowl at their home stadium, something that had never happened before last year in Tampa Bay. Last year attendance was restricted due to covid. California has extremely tight covid rules, which were just relaxed a little on January 15th. If they tighten back up will the NFL move the game to Dallas 1) to try to prevent home field advantage and 2) to try to get back to normal with 70,000+ fans in attendance for the big game?

Terry:

Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 in games against Sean McVay. Last week the 49ers won one of the prettiest ugly playoff games I’ve seen against the likely MVP. This week they face a Rams team that wants to play in the Super Bowl in their own building. And not that they’ll need added motivation, but they surely want to atone for the week 18 loss to SF. Despite the flashy Rams offense with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, OBJ and Cam Akers, this game will be won in the trenches by the more physical team. If the Rams pass rush gets to Jimmy G like they did to TB12 last week, the Rams should win. Conversely, if the 49ers D-line can limit Akers and Rams running game and rattle Stafford into an INT or two, the 49ers could win. But as well and as confident as Matthew Stafford has been in the past two weeks, I don’t see any outcome other than a Rams win.

Zach:

Los Angeles. I’m tempted to pick San Francisco for a few reasons:

1) Most obviously, the 49ers already beat the Rams twice this year.

2) Since the Rams acquired Von Miller, the Niners and Packers are the only Rams opponents that have allowed 1 or fewer sacks in a game. The Rams are 0-3 in those games.

3) Matthew Stafford hasn’t had a streak of three games without an interception since 2020. He’s due for a pick or two.

But...

1) The Bills beat the Chiefs and the Packers beat the Niners in the regular season and that didn’t mean anything in the playoffs.

2) The Niners are likely without Trent Williams and the Miller-Donald duo alone has 11 sacks in the last 6 games.

3) Like Mahomes, Stafford is starting to play his best football when it matters most. I like him to have another strong game.

back to blog