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NBA Power Rankings January 21, 2022

By Andrew Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings. Our power rankings consider the season as a whole but weigh the last three weeks more heavily.

The Top-5

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
1	Phoenix Suns	+4	14.60%
2	Dallas Mavericks	+8	2.60%
3	Philadelphia 76ers	0	2.69%
4	Memphis Grizzlies	-2	3.26%
5	Denver Nuggets	+8	2.69%

Last night we were treated to the #1 vs #2 CouchGM power ranking teams, which, again, factors the last 3 weeks heavily. As you can see Dallas still doesn’t have anywhere near the championship probability that Phoenix has, but Dallas had won 10 of the past 11 games going into last night. This was a trap game for them though because Phoenix hadn’t played since Monday but Dallas played a close game the night before, so we would call this a scheduled loss. Even with that, Dallas was up by 9 in the fourth quarter. They just ran into the Phoenix clutch time juggernaut. Phoenix is 15-3 in clutch games, which are games where the lead is 5 or less with 5 or less minutes to go. Chris Paul’s dagger 3 with 26 seconds left capped a 20-4 run to turn an 8 point deficit into an 8 point lead. Phoenix’s clutch time players last night were 2 hustlers (Biyombo and Bridges), 1 stand in the corner 3 point shooter (Crowder), and 2 all-stars that can get their own shot (Booker and Paul). Defensively they all carry their own weight - Crowder has the 3 and D reputation, Chris Paul leads the league in steals, Bridges has the 4th highest betting odds to win defensive player of the year, and Booker had an incredible block of a dunk with 48 seconds left that would have made it a 1 possession game (it was also originally called a foul but overturned on a coaches challenge, meaning it was clean because even with minor contact the ref’s normally uphold the call on the floor).

Philadelphia is 11-3 in their last 14 games. Is it a fireable offense for Elton Brand (and Daryl Morey) to not trade Ben Simmons for the best offer on the table so that you can make a push for the Finals? Seriously you’ve been playing down a man the whole season. There are 2 possibilities:

1) They over-value Ben Simmons’ impact on the team. Currently, they are 26-18, which is on pace to win 48 or 49 games. Their last 4 years, adjusting all of them to a full 82 game season, had wins of 56, 48, 51, 50. Once have they had a significantly better season than what they are having now, and this is without Ben Simmons. I think you trade him for any contributor you can get. Per ESPN Trade Machine, trading for CJ McCollum straight up would project +5 wins, trading for Caris LeVert & Justin Holiday & Goga Bitadze would project +6 wins. Both of those, by the way, would save salary cap space too. But that’s not the point. Let’s face it, There’s 5 teams in the East that seem pretty good (Bulls, Heat, Nets, Bucks, 76ers). You’re going to have to beat at least 2 of them. Might as well get all the depth you can so that you can withstand that playoff path, and +5 or +6 wins could be the difference between having 2nd round home court advantage or not.

2) They have no offers on the table or have unreasonable expectations of what to get in return for trading him. Last year Ben Simmons shot 56/30/61 and averaged 7 rebounds, just under 7 assists per game, and 3 turnovers to go along with his 14.3 points per game. Check out this unnamed player. He is shooting 43/30/67 with 8 rebounds, just under 8 assists, over 4 turnovers per game to go along with 18.5 points. So he’s less efficient than Simmons and is more turnover prone, but averages more rebounds, assists, and points. He also has more all star appearances, playoff success, and MVP awards than Ben Simmons. He was traded last offseason for two 2nd round picks, one 1st round pick, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell. I’m talking about Russell Westbrook. If Philly is expecting a James Harden or Paul George type return (5+ first round picks plus multiple players) or even a Russell Westbrook type return then they are kidding themselves. The 76ers will be better if they get 2-3+ NBA caliber players (not superstars or even all stars, just quality role players) added to the roster instead of getting nothing on the court from Simmons.

6-10

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
6	Miami Heat	0	5.23%
7	Utah Jazz	-3	11.76%
8	Golden State Warriors	-1	10.54%
9	Chicago Bulls	-8	8.07%
10	Minnesota Timberwolves	+8	1.81%

Two teams in free-fall right now are Utah and Golden State. Utah has lost of 7 of their last 10 games and Golden State has lost 6 of 10. I don’t always fret about the quantity of losses, rather I focus on who you are losing to. In college basketball, the March Madness bracket is filled out partially looking at teams’ records, with their opponents sorted into tiers, or “quads.” If you lose to teams in Quad 1 (home loss to a top team, road loss to a good team) I call that an acceptable loss. Home losses to bad teams or road losses to bad teams are not acceptable. Of Utah’s 7 losses, only 2 would fall under the “acceptable” category. The other 5 are not acceptable - Rockets, Lakers, Pistons, Pacers, and Raptors. 3 of those teams are out of the playoffs and 2 are barely hanging on to a play-in spot. Golden State is the opposite, with 4 of those 6 would be acceptable losses. That suggests that Golden State just hit a tough patch of schedule and I’d expect them to turn it around when the schedule gets easier. Utah is losing to bad teams, so they need to fix something because they should have feasted on this last couple weeks of bad teams.

Chicago lost 5 of their last 7, but on paper have 0 unacceptable losses in that stretch. I know Bulls fans will say the Celtics loss was bad, which is true. They were up 6 with under 2 minutes left, including having an open 3 that would have won it and a missed 15 footer that would have tied it on their last possession. I’ll just say if you’re going to lose, lose to a team that’s in the playoff picture and not to the Magic. Ask New York, who desperately need to put some wins together, but 2 of Orlando’s 8 wins have come against New York.

11-20

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
11	Brooklyn Nets	+4	4.14%
12	Cleveland Cavaliers	+2	3.45%
13	Charlotte Hornets	-4	2.56%
14	Boston Celtics	+2	2.00%
15	Los Angeles Lakers	-3	1.62%
16	Toronto Raptors	+1	1.38%
17	Milwaukee Bucks	-9	3.43%
18	Atlanta Hawks	+4	2.59%
19	Washington Wizards	0	1.72%
20	Los Angeles Clippers	0	2.04%

The Nets only have 1 superstar at home now (Harden), 2 on the road (Irving) because Durant will be out until after the all-star break. They likely don’t care much about any of this right now. Their biggest question is about Irving and whether he’ll get vaccinated before the playoffs (seems unlikely) or whether they’ll pay the fine that New York would impose for breaking local covid rules by allowing him to play home games, but that’s a PR nightmare that I’m sure the Nets and the NBA don’t want to have to face.

Milwaukee could have been added to the Utah and Golden State conversation, but they are interesting because their losses include almost the same amount of acceptable losses as unacceptable.

Seriously, pretty much everyone else is stuck in the .500 holding pattern. We’re only 3 weeks away from the trade deadline. It’ll be interesting to see who decides to tinker with the roster and who decides to ride with what they’ve got.

The Bottom-10

Power Ranking	Team	Change	Championship Probability
21	New York Knicks	-10	1.47%
22	Portland Trail Blazers	-1	1.53%
23	Detroit Pistons	+6	0.94%
24	Sacramento Kings	-1	1.18%
25	Indiana Pacers	0	1.38%
26	Houston Rockets	0	1.28%
27	New Orleans Pelicans	-3	1.07%
28	San Antonio Spurs	0	1.23%
29	Oklahoma City	-2	1.05%
30	Orlando Magic	0	0.93%

Here’s the under .500 crowd. Detroit is showing promise (0 unacceptable losses the last 10 games, with a 5-5 record), but they are so far gone in the standings that they’re just trying to build their confidence and hope to add a top pick next year. At least things are looking up.

New York is the only Eastern Conference team in this group with a chance at getting to the play-in tournament, but 4 of these Western Conference teams will be fighting for the last play-in spot. Portland holds a narrow 1.5 game lead over Sacramento, San Antonio, and New Orleans, but Damian Lillard won’t be playing until the start of March at the earliest. It really could be any of these teams that gets the last spot.

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