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NBA Power Rankings January 9, 2022

By Terry Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Fridays. Listed below is each team's current championship probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s championship probability.

Includes data from all games through January 8, 2022

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Utah Jazz	14.30%	0	14.52%
2	Golden State Warriors	11.28%	0	13.32%
3	Phoenix Suns	10.26%	+1	7.20%
4	Chicago Bulls	8.47%	+1	4.72%
5	Brooklyn Nets	5.03%	-2	9.27%

Some small shuffling but otherwise The Top 5 is unchanged.

The CouchGM model continues to favor the Jazz and they are 7-3 in their last 10. Rudy Gobert just entered the health and safety protocols; it alternately seems like yesterday and ancient history that Rudy Gobert tested positive and set in motion the NBA lockdown and the 2020 Orlando bubble. Regardless, the Jazz seem to have the right regular-season mix of share-the-ball and isolation. Just like last year, projecting the Jazz in the playoffs will depend on how well Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson play iso-ball in the halfcourt, slower paced playoffs.

Phoenix has the league’s best record and they seem to have weathered their Covid storm with the impressive play of second-year pro Jalen Smith, the signing of Bismack Biyombo and the stellar play of Cam Johnson who should be a strong candidate for Most Improved Player at this rate.

The east-leading Bulls are riding a league-best 9-game winning streak. They too seem to have weathered their Covid storm in style.

Kyrie Irving (finally) made his season debut in a win on the road in Indiana. The Nets lost a big game against the Bucks on Friday. A two-game sample is too small to judge the part-time impact of Kyrie, but we’ll get a few more data points this week when the Nets play at Portland and at Chicago.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Miami Heat	4.31%	+2	3.63%
7	Cleveland Cavaliers	3.77%	0	4.16%
8	Milwaukee Bucks	3.52%	-2	4.44%
9	Charlotte Hornets	3.10%	0	3.62%
10	Memphis Grizzlies	2.76%	0	2.55%

Even smaller shuffling but otherwise 6-10 is unchanged.

As stated immediately above, the Champion Bucks had a statement win over the Nets. They followed it up with a loss to Charlotte, in a statement win for the Hornets, however. As the league hits the 41-game/halfway point of the season, look for which teams seize the opportunity to rise above their stats and get statement wins. The Bucks at the Nets was one of those games, and the upcoming Nets at Bulls is another and they have the added element of part-time Kyrie.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have cooled somewhat over the past few weeks, but they remain on pace to finish solidly above their pre-season prediction of 28-54. The acquisition of Rajon Rondo for essentially nothing could solidify Cleveland’s backcourt leadership. Or it will have no real impact. The cost was definitely worth it and indicates that the Cleveland front office believes in its overachieving team.

The return of Ja Morant from injury has made Memphis one of the hottest teams in the league.

In the Playoff Picture

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Philadelphia 76ers	2.58%	+2	2.10%
12	Atlanta Hawks	2.54%	+2	1.88%
13	Dallas Mavericks	2.33%	+8	1.60%
14	Denver Nuggets	2.31%	-3	2.55%
15	Los Angeles Clippers	2.28%	-3	2.50%
16	Los Angeles Lakers	2.11%	0	1.73%
17	Boston Celtics	1.90%	-2	1.74%
18	Minnesota Timberwolves	1.79%	+4	1.47%
19	Toronto Raptors	1.74%	+6	1.22%
20	Indiana Pacers	1.54%	-1	1.63%
21	Washington Wizards	1.50%	-1	1.62%
22	Portland Trail Blazers	1.48%	+1	1.47%
23	New York Knicks	1.44%	-6	1.71%
24	San Antonio Spurs	1.40%	-6	1.71%
25	Sacramento Kings	1.19%	+1	1.21%

Biggest Risers

Dallas Mavericks: +8 to 13

Toronto Raptors: +6 to 19

Biggest Fallers

New York Knicks: -6 to 23

San Antonio Spurs: -6 to 24

I wouldn’t expect any of these teams to do enough in the second half of the season to host a first-round playoff series, but pretty much all of these teams could move up in the standings, perhaps even above the play-in games by going 24-17 (.585 winning percentage) in the second half. It will be interesting to see if any of these teams get aggressive at the deadline.

The trade deadline is still five weeks away and several of the teams that were luxury tax payers last season might be looking to shed some salaries.

Milwaukee will cut DeMarcus Cousins to save about $3M.

The Jazz traded Miye Oni (who?) to OKC to save $7M.

The Lakers dumped Rajon Rondo to save about $7M and are reportedly trying to also dump Kent Bazemore and DeAndre Jordan. Bazemore could contribute to one of the #11-25 teams.

Boston could move Dennis Shroeder in a money-saving move for Boston. His failure to sign an extension with the Lakers last summer is one of the dumbest moves I’ve seen a player make in my lifetime.

The 76ers have many options and they all begin with Ben Simmons, probably the biggest player/personnel question mark in the league right now.

Other teams could absorb salaries because they are below the salary cap or have trade exceptions that, if used, would not push them into the luxury tax. The question is whether taking on salary makes the team better. (Salary numbers below from spotrac.com)

Oklahoma City has $24.3M in cap space and is $22.7M below the salary floor. Look for OKC take on salary in exchange for picks.

Orlando is $22.9M below the luxury tax line and has a $17.2M trade exception.

New Orleans is $20.3M below the luxury tax line and has a $17.1M trade exception.

Dallas is $16.4M below the luxury tax line and has a $10.9M trade exception. Look for Dallas to somehow add an impact player.

The Bottom-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
26	Houston Rockets	1.11%	-1	1.30%
27	Oklahoma City	1.05%	0	1.04%
28	New Orleans Pelicans	1.02%	0	1.02%
29	Detroit Pistons	0.95%	+1	0.91%
30	Orlando Magic	0.94%	-1	0.95%

If the NBA had not made changes to the draft lottery positioning rules, these teams would simply be jockeying for ping pong balls. It seems likely that these teams will be in The Bottom-5 for the remainder of the season.

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