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NBA Power Rankings December 31, 2021

By Andrew Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Fridays. Listed below is each team's current championship probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s championship probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Utah Jazz	14.52%	0	13.12%
2	Golden State Warriors	13.32%	0	12.46%
3	Brooklyn Nets	9.27%	+1	8.94%
4	Phoenix Suns	7.20%	-1	10.24%
5	Chicago Bulls	4.72%	0	3.58%

We’ve reached the end of the year, and are only another week away from the halfway point of the NBA season. Unfortunately, we’re starting to see more widespread postponements of games and a record number of teams signing players. Teams are so desperate that they are reaching out to guys who haven’t played in the league for years. Joe Johnson made a shot late in a game, and even Isaiah Thomas started for the Lakers. Crazy times.

I won’t comment much on the top five teams. They are just switching amongst themselves in the order. If I had the chance to take those 5 teams or the field, I’d take one of those 5 as the eventual champion.

We get a top-2 matchup this week, though it may not happen since the Warriors have many players out with covid and their last game was postponed. Golden State at Utah on New Year’s Day should be good.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Milwaukee Bucks	4.44%	+2	3.76%
7	Cleveland Cavaliers	4.16%	0	3.97%
8	Miami Heat	3.63%	-2	4.47%
9	Charlotte Hornets	3.62%	0	3.56%
10	Memphis Grizzlies	2.55%	0	2.67%

Memphis, who is putting distance between themselves and the rest of the Western Conference teams that are hovering around .500, had the best week in my opinion. They won at Sacramento, which isn’t saying much, but then hopped on a plane and flew to Phoenix for what we call a “scheduled loss.” A scheduled loss is the 2nd game of a back to back, and Memphis had the worst kind - on the road after a plane trip against the team with the best record in the league, who did not play the day before and should have been ready to go after losing on Christmas Day. Memphis built enough of a lead going to the 4th (14 points) before their legs gave out. Ja Morant had enough gas to hit a layup with under a second remaining to win. Then they beat the Lakers two days later. That’s as solid of an undefeated week as you’ll see. 3 wins in 4 days is hard regardless of who you play.

I’m not going to lie, I stopped watching the Bucks vs Celtics Christmas Day game because I thought it was over, only to see Milwaukee came back to win. Every time I’m ready to not believe in Giannis he does something freakish. There are some things stats can’t quantify, and Giannis is definitely one of those. His numbers don’t fit today’s analytics driven world (outside of 15 feet he is a below average shooter everywhere). If he makes his free throws (see Game 6 of the NBA Finals), he is unstoppable.

In the Playoff Picture

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Denver Nuggets	2.55%	+2	2.29%
12	Los Angeles Clippers	2.50%	0	2.48%
13	Philadelphia 76ers	2.10%	+5	1.69%
14	Atlanta Hawks	1.88%	-4	2.92%
15	Boston Celtics	1.74%	+2	1.79%
16	Los Angeles Lakers	1.73%	-2	1.95%
17	New York Knicks	1.71%	+7	1.33%
18	San Antonio Spurs	1.71%	-2	1.82%
19	Indiana Pacers	1.63%	+2	1.51%
20	Washington Wizards	1.62%	-5	1.89%
21	Dallas Mavericks	1.60%	-2	1.63%
22	Minnesota Timberwolves	1.47%	+1	1.43%
23	Portland Trail Blazers	1.47%	-1	1.46%
24	Houston Rockets	1.30%	+2	1.18%
25	Toronto Raptors	1.22%	-5	1.55%

Here we get to the middle of the pack. The Western Conference has teams that can’t get more than a few games above or below .500. Denver, both Los Angeles teams, Dallas, and MInnesota are all within 2 games of that threshold and have been for some time. Minnesota is probably happy, given how bad they’ve been over the last decade, but the rest had legitimate hopes of a deep playoff run. At some point, we have to accept that this may be as good as they can get. We’re almost halfway through the year and it’s apparent to me that winning a playoff series should be considered a huge success this year.

It’s past December 15th, when most of the league’s players can now be traded, and I’m mildly surprised there haven’t been any noteworthy moves made yet. I’m sure lots of teams haven’t gotten a good assessment on their own team since so many players have been out with covid, but this is the group that I would have expected to see movement. Indiana said they are willing to sell but must not have any good offers. Ben Simmons is still available. Will Lillard finally be traded? We’re less than 6 weeks till the trade deadline. Some of these teams will start tanking soon.

BREAKING NEWS!!! Houston is out of the bottom-5 of our rankings! They still have the worst record in the Western Conference, but when superstar rookie Jalen Green does not play they are 8-7. When he does play they are only 2-18. That’s quite a predicament for Houston to be in. You can’t possibly give up on your #1 pick after half a season (he’s not an NFL quarterback!), but what do you think about the rest of the roster? Do you keep everyone and hope Jalen Green becomes the star you expect him to be and know the team around him is good, or do trade the current roster for picks and hope you get more players that are his age? Having followed the Suns for the last decade, I’d heavily push to keep the roster as-is and know that you’ll be good in 2 years. In today’s game, you need a star and 6 additional NBA level players. Gone are the days you can have a Big 3 surrounded by 10 G-league players.

The Bottom-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
26	Sacramento Kings	1.21%	-1	1.22%
27	Oklahoma City	1.04%	0	1.04%
28	New Orleans Pelicans	1.02%	0	1.03%
29	Orlando Magic	0.95%	0	0.96%
30	Detroit Pistons	0.91%	0	0.93%

I don’t know what to say about Sacramento. How are they not better? (Zach: since 2012-2013, Sacramento's BEST finish is 9th in the West. They've finished 9th once, 10th once, 12th 4 times, and 13th 3 times. Not good.)

New Orleans heard my last post on December 10th, apparently. I said their season is over because I didn’t think they could go 31-24 the rest of the way to earn a play-in spot. What have they done since then? They’re 6-2 with big wins against Milwaukee and Cleveland (though they did have 2 stinker losses to OKC and San Antonio). Brandon Ingram averaged 28 points and almost 6 assists per game in that stretch, and Jonas Valanciunas has contributed 17 points and 12 rebounds as well. Good for them. I’m pleasantly surprised. Let’s see if they can keep it up. The bad news is their next 4 games are against our top-6 teams - Milwaukee, Utah, scheduled loss (2nd night of a back to back, albeit both games at home) against Phoenix, then Golden State. If they can steal even 1 of those four games they’ll still be on a good enough pace since my call out to make the playoffs. I’m secretly hoping they pull it off.

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