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NFL Power Rankings December 23, 2021

By Terry Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NFL power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Tuesdays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current Super Bowl probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s Super Bowl probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	New England Patriots	12.07%	0	15.72%
2	Green Bay Packers	10.76%	0	9.74%
3	Kansas City Chiefs	9.96%	+7	3.76%
4	Dallas Cowboys	6.49%	+5	3.91%
5	Buffalo Bills	5.88%	+1	5.63%

This week’s schedule of games features four spotlight matchups that could either shake up the CouchGM Power Rankings or provide further clarity as to who the top dogs really are. These start with the #1 New England Patriots who continue to hold the CouchCM #1 spot. They host the #5 Buffalo Bills this Sunday in the marquee matchup of the week. A lot of the future of the CouchGM Rankings for the remainder of the season will be decided by the outcome of that game. But more importantly for the Bills, they currently are the last AFC Wildcard in a tie-breaker over the Baltimore Ravens so a Bills loss to the Patriots will knock the Bills out of the AFC playoff picture notwithstanding their strong offensive and defensive ratings that have them in the CouchGM top-5.

The current NFC #1 seed Green Bay Packers remain in the CouchGM #2 spot. This week they host the playoff longshot Cleveland Browns and next week they host the Minnesota Vikings. Look for the Pack to virtually eliminate the Browns this week and then deal the Vikings a serious body blow next week. They close at the suddenly competitive Detroit Lions. Look for the Packers to finish strong and possibly move up to CouchGM #1.

A huge jump this week for the Kansas City Chiefs. They currently hold the #1 seed in the AFC and are riding a league-best 7-game winning streak. (The second best streak is the Miami Dolphins’ 6-game streak. No other team in the league has a streak >3 games.) Look for the Chiefs’ streak to continue this week at home against the Steelers.

The eye test tells me the Super Bowl will be the Packers and the Chiefs. The CouchGM Power Rankings agrees.

Currently in the Playoffs (except for the #13 Broncos)

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Indianapolis Colts	5.66%	+1	5.25%
7	Los Angeles Rams	5.18%	-2	6.05%
8	Arizona Cardinals	4.79%	-4	6.58%
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.43%	-6	7.63%
10	Cincinnati Bengals	3.41%	+4	2.16%
11	Los Angeles Chargers	3.07%	0	2.84%
12	Tennessee Titans	2.99%	-4	4.09%
13	Denver Broncos	2.50%	0	2.65%
14	Minnesota Vikings	2.39%	+2	2.05%
15	San Francisco 49ers	2.29%	0	2.07%

The CouchGM Super Bowl Predictor has the 14 playoff teams in the top 15 of this week’s Power Rankings. The one outlier is the Denver Broncos who currently sit at #13 in the AFC standings. The Broncos’ final three games are at the Raiders, at the Chargers and home against the Chiefs. That’s a tough row to hoe and they could win all three and still miss the playoffs. Also, Teddy Bridgewater is still in the concussion protocol. Not a particularly rosy outlook for the outlier Broncos.

It is hard to not forecast yet another late season collapse for the Arizona Cardinals. It remains somewhat surprising that Cardinals opponents don’t run the ball >60% of the time given their poor defense against the run. This week the CouchGM #8 Cardinals host Jonathan Taylor (1,508 rushing yards this year) and the CouchGM #6 Indianapolis Colts. The Colts need the win in their pursuit of the AFC South division-leading Tennessee Titans. The Cardinals need the win to remain in the NFC West lead. The Christmas night game is the second spotlight matchup of the week.

The third spotlight matchup of the week is the #7 Los Angeles Rams at the #14 Minnesota Vikings. Both teams need this win to improve their playoff position; the Rams in their pursuit of the Cardinals in the NFC West and the Vikings as they attempt to maintain their tenuous hold on the final NFC Wildcard spot.

Need Help to Get in the Playoffs

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
16	New Orleans Saints	2.16%	+2	1.74%
17	Philadelphia Eagles	1.82%	+2	1.64%
18	Baltimore Ravens	1.74%	-6	2.76%
19	Seattle Seahawks	1.73%	-2	1.81%
20	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.52%	+4	1.29%
21	Carolina Panthers	1.48%	0	1.57%
22	Cleveland Browns	1.45%	-2	1.64%
23	Miami Dolphins	1.38%	0	1.32%
24	Las Vegas Raiders	1.34%	+1	1.25%

All of these teams need a lot of help to get into the playoffs. The Carolina Panthers really belong in the next grouping but, like the Bills and Broncos, their record is worse than their stats.

The CouchGM #16 New Orleans Saints play at the hot CouchGM #23 Miami Dolphins on Monday night in the final spotlight matchup of the week. Either the Saints or the Dolphins will walk off that field all but eliminated from the playoffs. A Saints win seems improbable given the ugly but effective 9-0 win last week in Tampa and the recent strong play from the Fish.

About to be Eliminated from the Playoffs

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
25	Washington Football Team	1.29%	-3	1.56%
26	Atlanta Falcons	1.15%	0	1.21%
27	New York Giants	1.08%	0	1.15%

These three teams are mathematically alive but are practically eliminated. Look for these three to drop to the next grouping and be replaced by new entries next week.

Eliminated from the Playoffs

Since all eliminated teams have 0.00% championship probability, they are sorted in descending order of projected record.

Rank	Team	Projected Record	Change
28	Chicago Bears	5-12	0
29	New York Jets	4-13	0
30	Houston Texans	4-13	+1
31	Detroit Lions	3-13-1	+1
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	3-14	-2

Any changes in these teams is only their 2022 draft order as determined by their record.

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