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NBA Power Rankings December 17, 2021

By Terry Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Fridays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current championship probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s championship probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Utah Jazz	17.37%	0	15.40%
2	Golden State Warriors	12.41%	0	13.69%
3	Phoenix Suns	7.71%	0	10.75%
4	Brooklyn Nets	7.50%	0	6.67%
5	Charlotte Hornets	4.88%	+3	3.26%

The top four here remain unchanged and likely will remain so for the foreseeable future (provided the Nets can continue to navigate the Covid health and safety protocols). The Jazz continue to impress and are tied for #1 with the Warriors in Net Rating (11.6).

The outlier here, of course, is Charlotte. They are 16-14, #6 seed in the east. They are #2 in Offensive Rating (113.6), T5 in Field Goal Percentage and #3 in Effective Field Goal Percentage. But they are #30 in Defensive Rating (114.0) which is unsustainable in the playoffs. The eye test confirms those numbers. They are an inconsistent mess. When their offense is good, they win; when their offense is bad, they lose. Nowhere to go but down from here for the Hornets.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Milwaukee Bucks	4.64%	+1	3.52%
7	Cleveland Cavaliers	3.81%	+3	2.61%
8	Chicago Bulls	3.58%	-3	5.33%
9	Miami Heat	3.31%	0	3.17%
10	Atlanta Hawks	3.14%	-4	4.21%

The Champion Bucks are slowly creeping up the rankings. Their Defensive Rating (#23, 106.7) which is lower than expected but their Net Rating (#5, 3.9) is a reason for optimism in Milwaukee. Don’t be surprised to see the Bucks in the Top-5 soon.

The Cleveland Cavaliers! Talk about a reason for optimism! The Cavs are #2 in Defensive Rating (not too surprising with their length) and they are on pace to finish 49-33 which is 21 games more than their pre-season prediction of 28-54. If this continues, J.B. Bickerstaff will win coach of the year in a landslide.

The Hawks are 14-14, #9 seed in the east, but they are #8 in Net Rating (2.4). Add that to #7 in Effective Field Goal Percentage (53.5%) and the Hawks are #10 in this week’s power poll.

In the Playoff Picture

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Memphis Grizzlies	2.71%	0	2.38%
12	Los Angeles Lakers	2.46%	+1	2.19%
13	Denver Nuggets	2.33%	+1	2.14%
14	San Antonio Spurs	2.28%	+2	2.08%
15	Los Angeles Clippers	2.28%	-3	2.20%
16	Indiana Pacers	1.78%	+2	1.82%
17	Washington Wizards	1.67%	-2	2.12%
18	Philadelphia 76ers	1.59%	-1	2.02%
19	Dallas Mavericks	1.55%	0	1.54%
20	Sacramento Kings	1.45%	+2	1.43%
21	Boston Celtics	1.42%	0	1.46%
22	Toronto Raptors	1.40%	+3	1.19%
23	Portland Trail Blazers	1.34%	-3	1.47%
25	Minnesota Timberwolves	1.23%	-1	1.28%
25	New York Knicks	1.18%	-1	1.24%

Almost every team here has roster question marks. Injuries and Covid list affect virtually all of them. The question is whether these will wait to get healthy or seek upgrades via trades.

The Nuggets are 14-14 and are #19 in Net Rating (-0.6). The Spurs are 10-17 and are T16 in Net Rating (-0.4). Looks like the Nuggets are winning close games and the Spurs are not.

A modest, 3-game winning streak has the Lakers slowly climbing. As the Russell Westbrook trade rumors continue, the Lakers may finally get Trevor Ariza back this week (upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game vs. Minnesota). The Lakers’ Defensive Rating (#19, 107.2) remains their biggest problem.

The Bottom-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
26	Houston Rockets	1.16%	0	1.12%
27	New Orleans Pelicans	0.98%	+1	0.94%
28	Orlando Magic	0.93%	+1	0.91%
29	Oklahoma City	0.93%	-2	0.94%
30	Detroit Pistons	0.91%	0	0.93%

Unfortunately the bottom 5 teams are not likely to change for the foreseeable weeks. Houston’s recent stretch of good play (6-4 in their last 10) has made Eric Gordon’s name show up in more trade rumors. Zion’s return has been pushed back 4-6 more weeks and news has emerged that he has skipped rehab and fallen asleep during film sessions. Add that to his weight gain and he is unfortunately on the fast track to being one of the biggest busts in league history.

Final Notes

Only the Hawks (-4) changed by more than 3 spots this week. Last week there was a lot of volatility in the “Possible Play-in Participants” range of 11-25. 14 teams this week were either unchanged or moved only 1 spot. I wonder if this means that now that we’ve completed 1/3 of the season, the playoff participants are probably set except for perhaps only the 9th and 10th seed in each conference?

The teams that are currently outside of the play-in games (the bottom 5 teams in each conference) have huge hills to climb in order to get back into the playoff picture. In the Western Conference the bottom 5 are the Trail Blazers, Spurs, Rockets, Pelicans and Thunder. The one perennial Western Conference team that has been on the eliminated-from-the-playoffs-early-in-the-season-list is the Kings. Could this be the year Sacramento again makes the playoffs?

In the Eastern Conference the bottom 5 are the Raptors, Knicks, Pacers, Magic and Pistons. Given that the Pacers have publicly solicited trade offers for any player on their roster, it looks like only the Knicks and Raptors have a chance to make the playoffs. The Knicks are 25th in this week’s rankings and although they are not publicly soliciting trade offers like the Pacers, they look like they really need a point guard who can also play defense at the Tom Thibodeau level. Ben Simmons?

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