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NFL Power Rankings December 14, 2021

By Andrew Hales, CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NFL power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Tuesdays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current Super Bowl probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s Super Bowl probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	New England Patriots	15.72%	0	13.18%
2	Green Bay Packers	9.74%	+3	5.02%
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.63%	+1	6.48%
4	Arizona Cardinals	6.58%	-2	13.13%
5	Los Angeles Rams	6.05%	+2	4.09%

Our model, which is based on recent history’s results, shows that having the #1 seed in the conference is a huge predictor of playoff success. Depending on your perspective, you could argue this year the top seed could be more or less important than prior years. Those in the “more important” camp can argue that this year there is only one first round bye in each conference, as opposed to 2 every other year. Not only are they the only team getting a week off, but they also will get home field advantage. Those in the “less important” camp will point out that home teams this year are 100-104-1, so home field advantage means less than normal. Like all arguments, it depends on your perspective. Tampa Bay and Green Bay both are undefeated at home, so they’ll push for the #1 seed, but the Cardinals and Patriots are both undefeated on the road.

Green Bay and Tampa Bay both saw huge increases in their playoff championship probabilities with their wins and the Cardinals loss. Both of them are now ahead of Arizona for the #1 spot. Both of them also have future hall of fame quarterbacks, while the Cardinals’ QB likely lost the MVP with his play last night. Naturally, the Rams got a huge increase in their probability with the win. They had lost 3 of their last 4 going into last week, so they needed this game in the worst way. The tiebreakers, as of right now, favor the Cardinals, so they may still be facing a road playoff game regardless.

All of a sudden the AFC playoff race is identical to the NFC - 3 teams tied for first with 2 more only a game behind. Only 4 teams have been officially eliminated. Everyone in the AFC (not counting their 3 eliminated teams) is within 1 game of the playoffs. The same amount of teams in the NFC can say the same thing. I love that we’re a week before Christmas and still (almost) every game means something.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Buffalo Bills	5.63%	-3	8.03%
7	Indianapolis Colts	5.25%	-1	4.92%
8	Tennessee Titans	4.09%	0	3.91%
9	Dallas Cowboys	3.91%	0	3.60%
10	Kansas City Chiefs	3.76%	+1	2.78%

Buffalo saw a large decline in their championship probability because the likelihood of them having to play a first round road playoff game is increasing with each loss. They are in the top 7 in offense, defense, and special teams, but have 5 losses that were 1 score games. They need to be better in key situations or else they’ll lose earlier than their talent would say they should.

The Titans got some good news that Derrick Henry may return for the playoffs. They are a lock to win their division (yes, I said that. Sorry Colts fans) so adding him to the playoff roster would be a huge addition.

Kansas City is finally starting to look like the team everyone thought they would be at the start of the year. They’ve won 6 straight, including wins against 2 top teams (Dallas and Green Bay) and could easily win out and end up as the #1 seed in their division. What are the odds for Mahomes for MVP at this point?

In the Hunt

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Los Angeles Chargers	2.84%	+3	2.44%
12	Baltimore Ravens	2.76%	-2	3.25%
13	Denver Broncos	2.65%	+2	2.08%
14	Cincinnati Bengals	2.16%	-2	2.66%
15	San Francisco 49ers	2.07%	+1	1.92%
16	Minnesota Vikings	2.05%	-3	2.51%
17	Seattle Seahawks	1.81%	+3	1.67%
18	New Orleans Saints	1.74%	+3	1.51%
19	Philadelphia Eagles	1.64%	0	1.68%
20	Cleveland Browns	1.64%	+4	1.39%

I had to rename this group because pretty much the entire league could be called a “playoff hopeful” right now, so this group is who, statistically, should think they belong (minus Seattle who unfortunately will remember this as both Russell WIlson’s final season and the year that they should have been in if Wilson didn’t miss so much time). Only 14 teams make it so some of this group will end the year disappointed, and rightfully so.

The Ravens may have dodged a bullet with Lamar Jackson only having a low ankle sprain. Kyler Murry missed over a month with a high ankle sprain and had a bye in there. The Ravens couldn’t have afforded to have that at this point in the season.

Most of these teams, Denver for example, have multiple remaining games against the other teams they are trying to beat into the playoffs. This year no one will sneak into the playoffs. Every team will have to earn it.

I pointed out earlier that the Bills have 5 losses within a touchdown. Every single Vikings loss has been within a touchdown. If they didn’t have such a hard schedule (vs Rams and at Packers, sandwiched by 2 Bears games) I’d say they would get in. They’ll have to beat a good team to do that.

Long Shots

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
21	Carolina Panthers	1.57%	-4	1.77%
22	Washington Football Team	1.56%	-4	1.68%
23	Miami Dolphins	1.32%	+3	1.27%
24	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.29%	-2	1.50%
25	Las Vegas Raiders	1.25%	-2	1.47%
26	Atlanta Falcons	1.21%	+1	1.09%

Carolina won at Arizona three weeks ago (not that big of a deal as discussed earlier) and haven’t won since. I was too quick to say Cam Newton was going to regain his form and lead them to the playoffs.

The rest of these teams still have enough games to get into the playoffs, but they have glaring issues that I think will keep them out this year.

On the Chopping Block

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
27	New York Giants	1.15%	-2	1.27%
28	Chicago Bears	0.94%	+1	0.95%

Watch out Bears and Giants. While they won’t be mathematically eliminated this week, they need to win out and have pretty much everyone in front of them lose 2 of their last 4 games to get in.

Eliminated

Since all eliminated teams have 0.00% championship probability, they are sorted in descending order of projected record.

Rank	Team	Projected Record	Change
29	New York Jets	4-13	+1
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	3-14	+1
31	Houston Texans	3-14	+1
32	Detroit Lions	2-14-1	-4

This list is growing. It added 3 teams this week.

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