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NFL Power Rankings December 07, 2021

By Zach Hales, CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NFL power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Tuesdays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current Super Bowl probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s Super Bowl probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	New England Patriots	13.18%	+1	10.37%
2	Arizona Cardinals	13.13%	-1	11.85%
3	Buffalo Bills	8.03%	0	8.97%
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.48%	+1	6.22%
5	Green Bay Packers	5.02%	+1	5.08%

For the first time this season, we have someone other than the Cardinals or Bills at the top of our rankings. The Patriots won a big, albeit somewhat ungly due to wind, game against the Bills and are rewarded with the #1 spot.

Back in the pre-draft prospect evaluation, I thought that Justin Fields, and not Trevor Lawrence, would turn out to be the best QB in this draft class. At least for this year, this is not even close to the case. The Patriots, predominantly by Mac Jones, have the #8 Passer Rating in ALL OF THE NFL! Good for him. I’ll still contend that I think long term Justin Fields has greater upside, but given that the Patriots so far have the #1 defense in ALL OF THE NFL (in terms of points allowed per drive), it’s safe to say that the competent, if unsexy, Mac Jones has been more than good enough. But is that really a surprise? He had a great supporting case around him last year at Alabama and all he was asked to do was be steady, and that was good enough to win the whole dang thing.

The Cardinals continue to be rock-solid, ranking top-3 or better in all of points scored per drive, points allowed per drive, net points per drive, turnover margin, passer rating, and a #1 seed. Their championship probability actually increased by nearly 1.5 points but got passed by the Patriots who saw an even larger increase. The Cardinals still have the best projected record in the league at 14-3. The Cardinals grasp on the #1 seed in the NFC will be tested in the coming weeks, as they have the hardest remaining schedule among the NFC teams in the top-5, with three games against teams currently over 0.500: Monday Night Football vs Rams (12/13), Saturday night vs Colts (12/25), and @ Cowboys (1/2), though two of the three are at home. The Packers only have one game left against teams over 0.500, @ Baltimore (12/19). The Buccaneers also only have one against a team currently over 0.500, vs Buffalo (12/12).

The Bill still look, on paper, like one of the best teams in the league. They rank top-5 or better in points scored, points allowed, and net points per drive and turnover margin, but have a handful of head-scratching losses (looking at you, Steelers and Jaguars) that have them all the way down in the 7th seed in the AFC. Yet another drop has the gap between the #2 Cardinals and the #3 Bills, just over 5 points, as big the gap between the #3 Bills and the #10 Ravens.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Indianapolis Colts	4.92%	+1	4.54%
7	Los Angeles Rams	4.09%	+3	3.24%
8	Tennessee Titans	3.91%	+3	2.82%
9	Dallas Cowboys	3.60%	-1	4.09%
10	Baltimore Ravens	3.25%	-6	7.43%

The Colts are another team that looks better on paper than they do in practice. Currently ranked #4 in points scored per drive and #6 in net points per drive and #1 in turnover margin, but only 7-6 and 9th seed in the AFC

Baltimore’s position in our rankings has been pretty volatile the last few weeks, at 8th two weeks ago, 4th last week, and now back down to 10th this week. I don’t really trust them. The defense is good, 7th in the league in points scored per drive, but the offense is below average. They are also 3rd-WORST in the league in turnover margin and in the bottom-third in passer rating, larger because Lamer Jackson is throwing fewer touchdowns this year vs last year.

Playoff Hopefules

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Kansas City Chiefs	2.78%	+1	2.63%
12	Cincinnati Bengals	2.66%	-3	3.50%
13	Minnesota Vikings	2.51%	+1	2.33%
14	Los Angeles Chargers	2.44%	+2	2.00%
15	Denver Broncos	2.08%	+2	2.44%
16	San Francisco 49ers	1.92%	-1	2.09%
17	Carolina Panthers	1.77%	-3	1.52%
18	Washington Football Team	1.68%	+3	1.51%
19	Philadelphia Eagles	1.68%	+3	1.43%

The Chiefs keep looking better by the week, now having won 5 games in a row.

The rest of this tier is a little difficult to predict because there are a lot of teams that are right around 0.500 and just below. None of them is particularly great and none is particularly terrible, either.

One team I’ll highlight in this team is the LA Chargers. They are sitting at 7-5 and the #5 seed in the AFC with a pretty good chance at the playoffs. They are also #6 in offense and above average at turnover margin and passer rating, but are held back by one of the worst defenses in the league (#29). I think Justin Herbert is a solid quarterback and should be a good enough QB to lead a deep playoff run, but the Chargers have to upgrade the defense if they want to be anything more than a first-round exit.

Below Average

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
20	Seattle Seahawks	1.67%	-2	1.59%
21	New Orleans Saints	1.51%	-4	1.77%
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.50%	+3	1.28%
23	Las Vegas Raiders	1.47%	-4	1.57%
24	Cleveland Browns	1.39%	0	1.30%
25	New York Giants	1.27%	-2	1.33%
26	Miami Dolphins	1.27%	+1	1.20%
27	Atlanta Falcons	1.09%	-1	1.23%

The Saints have had a rough time this season with injury and probably should be better given better health. That said, I don’t buy Taysom Hill as an actual QB at all. He got a sweet new contract with incentives if he earns a starting QB spot, and he does make a decent gadget player, but he’s much more hype than substance. He’s an okay runner, an okay receiver, and an okay special teams player, and that’s about it.

The Less Than 1%

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
28	Detroit Lions	0.97%	+1	0.94%
29	Chicago Bears	0.95%	0	0.95%
30	New York Jets	0.93%	+1	0.91%
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.88%	+1	0.88%

The Lions, after finally winning their first game:

Eliminated

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
32	Houston Texans	0.00%	-4	1.02%

The first team to be eliminated. There’s always next year.

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