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NBA Power Rankings December 3, 2021

By Zach Hales, CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Fridays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current championship probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s championship probability.

This week every team has played at least 20 games, so we now have a pretty good idea of who is real and who is not. Rankings from here on out will likely have less volatility than the first few weeks of the season with the best teams separating themselves. That said, there are still a few surprises in this week’s rankings, including in the top-5...

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Golden State Warriors	13.06%	0	15.01%
2	Phoenix Suns	9.45%	+2	5.80%
3	Utah Jazz	9.34%	0	9.18%
4	Brooklyn Nets	8.55%	-2	11.20%
5	Charlotte Hornets	6.35%	+8	2.74%

Charlotte lost 3 games this week but jumps to #5 in the rankings...

...but it’s not as crazy as it sounds. The three losses were:

-on the road to the Rockets in OT. The Rockets are borderline unwatchable but got career-best performances from Christian Wood, Armoni Brooks, and Kevin Porter Jr., above average performances from Eric Gordon, Jae’Sean Tate, and Garrison Mathews, and made 23 three’s. The Hornets scored 143. The Rockets were just 🔥.

-on the road to the Bulls, the #2 seed in the East. Understandable.

-on the road to the Bucks, the reigning NBA Champions, who needed a last-second shot from Giannis to escape with the victory.

If just one of the Rockets or Bucks games goes the Hornets’ way, they would be 14-9 and the 4th seed in the East. The east is very tight; only 1 game in the standings separates seeds 6-11, only 3 games separate seeds 3-11, and only 4.5 games separate seeds 1-11. That 4.5-game gap is the same as the gap between the #1 Suns and the #3 Jazz in the West. Lots of good-but-not-great teams in the east means one good or bad night can be the difference between home-court advantage and the play-in game.

The Hornets are also the #4 offense and the best three-point shooting team (#1 in 3-point shooting percentage and #3 in made threes per game).

All of that is to say that the Hornets are better than #9 in the East.

Our model still has the Warriors at #1, but their championship probability dropped from 15% to 13%. And at #2, the Suns are the real best team (I’m on record choosing the Suns to win it all this year), especially after a head-to-head win against Golden State. The Suns are top-6 in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, and 3-point shooting percentage. The reason the Suns are rated lower than the Warriors here, though, is that the Suns are 22nd in the league in made threes per game, which would be second-lowest for an NBA champion since 2013 (only the 2020 Lakers at 23 were worse, and they were, frankly, a DisneyBubble fluke). The Warriors, on the other hand, are #2 offense, #1 defense, #1 net, #1 made threes, and #6 3FG%. So they still look slightly better on paper, but paper doesn't win basketball games. Both are now up to projected 60+ wins.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Chicago Bulls	5.61%	+2	3.56%
7	Atlanta Hawks	5.34%	-1	4.05%
8	Milwaukee Bucks	3.59%	+2	3.39%
9	Miami Heat	2.79%	-4	5.07%
10	Washington Wizards	2.72%	+6	2.27%

Chicago is very similar to Phoenix: both are top-5 or top-10 in offense, defense, net, and 3FG% but in the 20s for made threes per game. Miami, now without Bam Adebayo indefinitely and Jimmy Butler until at least next week, could be in trouble.

Washington jumps back into the top-10. At risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll again say that the Wizards are the big winners of the Russell Westbrook trade, having flipped him for 5 important rotation players (3 of them starters). Seems pretty obvious that a great way to improve a team is to get more actual NBA level players on the team. Reigning executive of the year James Jones of the Phoenix Suns said, “I think in terms of building a team like an index card. We need three-by-five,” meaning 3 deep at 5 positions. Phoenix’s depth is a big strength, and Washington took a big step in that direction with the Westbrook trade.

Possible Play-in Participants

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Cleveland Cavaliers	2.54%	+13	1.30%
12	Memphis Grizzlies	2.53%	+6	1.79%
13	Dallas Mavericks	2.41%	+2	2.38%
14	Los Angeles Clippers	2.18%	-7	3.79%
15	Portland Trail Blazers	2.08%	-6	3.44%
16	Minnesota Timberwolves	2.04%	-2	2.61%
17	New York Knicks	1.94%	-6	3.35%
18	Boston Celtics	1.88%	+1	1.62%
19	Philadelphia 76ers	1.86%	-7	3.05%
20	Los Angeles Lakers	1.83%	+2	1.48%
21	Denver Nuggets	1.41%	-1	1.54%
22	Indiana Pacers	1.39%	-1	1.53%
23	San Antonio Spurs	1.37%	+2	1.19%
24	Toronto Raptors	1.33%	-7	1.86%
25	Sacramento Kings	1.28%	-2	1.43%

Cleveland has rebounded nicely from a bad losing streak with a 3 game winning streak and looks forward to a big one tonight against Washington. Evan Mobley’s return has been big. Cleveland is 12-6 when Mobley plays and 0-4 when he sits.

Dallas is back up from #15 to #13, and they’ve been between those rankings every week this season. I guess our pre-season ranking for the Mavs was right on the money. They currently sit #4 in the west but have a negative net rating (-0.8). I think they’ll finish closer to 6th or 7th when all is said and done.

Shoutout to Memphis for the biggest win in NBA history in their 73-point dismantling of (the admittedly terrible) Oklahoma City Thunder. Without Ja Morant, too.

All of the teams in this tier, and a few in the bottom-10, are within 2 games of 0.500. It seems like there are a lot of teams that are good-not-great this year, and maybe it’s just because it’s still too early for teams to have given up. Aside from OKC, Houston, Detroit, Orlando, and New Orleans (depending on whether Zion ever plays), it feels like all of the other teams have a reasonable chance to be in the play-in games. The more competitive teams the better.

The Bottom-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
26	Houston Rockets	1.11%	+4	0.98%
27	Orlando Magic	1.04%	-1	1.18%
28	New Orleans Pelicans	1.03%	0	1.06%
29	Oklahoma City	1.01%	-2	1.14%
30	Detroit Pistons	0.93%	-1	1.00%

As stated above, these are the only 5 teams that are already truly out of it (excluding MAYBE New Orleans if Zion is able to meaningfully contribute, but I’m doubting it).

Of the 5, I have the least optimism in OKC. Sure, they have tons of draft picks, and sure, they have SGA, a potential All-Star. But they also don’t inspire confidence with their recent draft history. They didn’t draft SGA, they traded Paul George for him. In the last 3 drafts:

2019 - drafted Brandon Clarke, who is second only to Zion Williamson in win shares in the draft class, but traded him for Darius Bazley, who is shooting 35%/27.5%/62.5% in his third year.

2020 - drafted Immanuel Quickly, who has emerged in New York, shoots 38% from three, and is 4th in the class so far in win shares, but through trades ended up with Aleksej Pokusevski, who has a bit of a cult following but is, as the saying goes, two years away from being two years away.

2021- drafted Josh Giddey, who does look fun and interesting but needs to learn to shoot.

CouchGM could draft better than that.

Their next best player is Luguentz Dort, who had a great run in the playoffs against Houston two years ago, but whose stock I sell. He scores 16 ppg, but on poor efficiency and he only shoots 33% from three. Sell high on Lu Dort and buy all the Cam Johnson stock you can find. I mean, he had a pretty sweet run in the Finals, too.

CAM JOHNSON. OH MY GOODNESS. 😱 pic.twitter.com/K2EJveffNT

— NBA TV (@NBATV) July 12, 2021

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