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NFL Power Rankings November 30, 2021

By Terry Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NFL power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Tuesdays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current Super Bowl probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s Super Bowl probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Arizona Cardinals	11.85%	0	12.19%
2	New England Patriots	10.37%	+1	8.36%
3	Buffalo Bills	8.97%	-1	9.18%
4	Baltimore Ravens	7.43%	+4	4.15%
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.22%	0	6.53%

No change at the top for the Cardinals after their bye week.

The big mover into the Top-5 is the Ravens. They’re up 5 spots to #4 on the strength of their gritty win against the Browns. They currently lead the AFC race for the first-round playoff bye yet the numbers prefer both the #2 Patriots and the #3 Bills. The Patriots now have a 6-game winning streak and the Bills host the Patriots next Monday night in what is probably the best matchup this season since the Packers beat Arizona on Thursday, October 28th.

Last week’s rankings saw some big gaps between the Top-5 teams; this week those gaps have significantly shrunk.

The Bucs remain #5 after getting pushed to the limit by the Colts. Todd Bowles’ defense made the Colts offense one dimensional (Carson Wentz threw 44 passes overall and he dropped back to pass on 27 of 28 consecutive plays in the 2nd and 3rd quarters). Either that or Frank Reich has some explaining to do after Jonathan Taylor, who leads the league with 1,205 rushing yards, had only 5 second half carries. Taylor finished the game with 97 yards from scrimmage (83 rushing and 14 receiving), only 3 yards from a record 9th consecutive game of 100 or more yards + a rushing TD.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Green Bay Packers	5.09%	0	4.89%
7	Indianapolis Colts	4.54%	0	4.45%
8	Dallas Cowboys	4.09%	+1	3.91%
9	Cincinnati Bengals	3.50%	+3	2.92%
10	Los Angeles Rams	3.24%	0	3.68%

Three of these teams (Colts, Cowboys and Rams) lost this week but they remain in the Second-5 because of the parity from 11-21.

The Packers remain at #6 but they have every reason to be confident after beating the Rams at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers looks good -- broken toe and all -- and he appears to be in-sync with his top-two receivers having completed 12 passes to Davante Adams and Randall Cobb for 201 yards. They own the tie-breaker over the Cardinals for the first-round playoff bye so they only need a little help to overtake the Cardinals and get the playoff bye.

The Bengals jump to #9 after thumping the Steelers at home 41-10. Joe Burrow completed 20 of 24 passes (96.2 RTG) and Joe Mixon had 165 yards on 28 carries. Mixon is the best running back in the league not named Taylor or Henry. The Bengals ran the ball on 45 of 65 plays (69%) on Sunday.

On the Playoff Bubble

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Tennessee Titans	2.82%	-7	7.11%
12	Kansas City Chiefs	2.63%	+1	2.66%
13	Denver Broncos	2.40%	+3	1.95%
14	Minnesota Vikings	2.33%	-3	3.08%
15	San Francisco 49ers	2.09%	+3	1.72%
16	Los Angeles Chargers	2.00%	-1	2.45%
17	New Orleans Saints	1.77%	-2	2.31%

This is where anomalies show up.

Tennessee dropped 7 spots in the rankings after they were pounded by the Patriots in Foxboro but they’re 8-4 and lead the AFC South by 2 games over the Colts so they will host a playoff game barring a collapse.

The #12 Chiefs (bye last week) have a 4-game winning streak and play the #13 Broncos on Sunday night (together with the MNF Bills vs. Patriots game comprising arguably the best Sunday night/Monday night combo of games this season).

The 49ers climbed 3 spots and are 6-5, currently NFC Wild Card #2. This week they play Seattle, who moved up 3 spots to #18 after a loss to the WFT. The Seahawks are now 3-8, second to last place in the NFC. Stick a fork in them; they’re done. The 12s need to start worrying that Russ may be playing his last few games for the Seahawks. Look for the Seattle slide to continue this week.

WFT is #21 but is also NFC Wild Card #3.

Below Average

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
18	Seattle Seahawks	1.59%	+3	1.53%
19	Las Vegas Raiders	1.57%	+4	1.30%
20	Carolina Panthers	1.52%	-3	1.90%
21	Washington Football Team	1.51%	+3	1.17%
22	Philadelphia Eagles	1.43%	-3	1.71%
23	New York Giants	1.33%	+2	1.13%
24	Cleveland Browns	1.30%	-2	1.33%
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.28%	-5	1.56%
26	Atlanta Falcons	1.23%	+2	1.02%
27	Miami Dolphins	1.20%	-1	1.09%

The Browns and the Steelers are .500; the others are below .500. Nothing to see here. Move along.

The Bottom-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
28	Houston Texans	1.02%	-1	1.03%
29	Chicago Bears	0.98%	0	0.97%
30	Detroit Lions	0.94%	0	0.93%
31	New York Jets	0.91%	+1	0.85%
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.88%	-1	0.93%

No change here because these teams played each other this week. The Bears squeaked by the Lions on Thanksgiving (I admit I didn’t watch a single play) and the Jets won on the road against the Texans.

It’s not surprising that the Jets and the Jaguars remain the bottom-2 teams. That’s what tends to happen when you draft #1 and #2 and you have needs everywhere on your roster and the pressure to take a QB overwhelms the GM. It’s really difficult to evaluate Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence when the rest of the team has weaknesses too but it’s hard to give a good report given that wins and losses are the most important numbers of all.

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