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NBA Power Rankings November 26, 2021

By Terry Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Fridays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current championship probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s championship probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Golden State Warriors	15.01%	0	12.62%
2	Brooklyn Nets	11.20%	+1	8.14%
3	Utah Jazz	9.18%	-1	9.95%
4	Phoenix Suns	5.80%	+2	5.14%
5	Miami Heat	5.07%	-1	7.41%

Golden State remains #1 with the highest Current Championship Probability (CCP). The Dubs continue to impress with their league best 13.5 point differential showing that not only do they win but they win big. In fact, their differential is twice that of every team in the league but Utah and Phoenix.

Nos. 1-4 all had increases in their CCPs this week. Utah and Miami fell in the rankings because Brooklyn’s CCP jumped 3.06 points. Phoenix is the Top-5 newcomer, jumping two spots to #4, and their 14-game winning streak continues; however, they next have a difficult back-to-back in the Big Apple with the Knicks first followed by the Nets. It is not uncommon to lose the second game of a road back-to-back so the Suns get a huge test in NYC with the #2 Nets on Saturday. Utah (12-6) and Miami (12-7) both are 5-5 in their last 10 so they’ve cooled considerably from their fast starts.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Atlanta Hawks	4.05%	+8	2.54%
7	Los Angeles Clippers	3.79%	0	4.59%
8	Chicago Bulls	3.56%	0	4.52%
9	Portland Trail Blazers	3.44%	+2	2.81%
10	Milwaukee Bucks	3.39%	-1	3.36%

Last week the gap between #6 and #10 was 1.94 CCP points; this week that gap shrinks to 0.66 points. Also, last week the gap between #5 and #6 0.22 points; this week it grew to 1.02 points. As we near the quarter post of the season, the top teams are separating themselves and the next tier is seeing compression. This compression trend continues all the way to #30 but it is greatest here in the 6-10 range. And all of this has happened with the Hawks rising 8 spots to #6.

11-20

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	New York Knicks	3.35%	-1	3.20%
12	Philadelphia 76ers	3.05%	-7	5.36%
13	Charlotte Hornets	2.74%	0	2.67%
14	Minnesota Timberwolves	2.61%	+7	1.72%
15	Dallas Mavericks	2.38%	0	2.53%
16	Washington Wizards	2.27%	0	2.29%
17	Toronto Raptors	1.86%	+5	1.65%
18	Memphis Grizzlies	1.79%	-1	1.83%
19	Boston Celtics	1.62%	+1	1.75%
20	Denver Nuggets	1.54%	-8	2.71%

The two multi-game risers and fallers are noteworthy here:

Minnesota climbed 7 spots to #14 on the strength of a 5-game winning streak. Anthony Edwards is averaging 22.8 ppg on 43.4%/36.0%/74.6% shooting and a 17.37 PER. His improved scoring and shooting has been a plus for the T-Wolves. Karl-Anthony Towns is also producing his career averages, including a 23/54 PER (17th in the league).

Toronto continues to play better on the road (7-4) than at home (2-6). OG Anunoby is averaging 20.1 ppg, up from his career average of 9.8 ppg.

Philadelphia has dropped to a .500 middle-of-the-pack team and their future appears bleak unless they get healthy. They are getting steady production from Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris this year (when healthy) but given the Ben Simmons uncertainty, they are likely closer to the lottery than winning a playoff series if Tyrese Maxey is their best player.

Denver’s story is virtually identical to Philadelphia’s. So long as Nikola Jokic’s wrist injury keeps him off the court, there will be a lot of pressure on Will Barton and Aaron Gordon and that combo is ill-equipped for much more than .500.

The Celtics at #19 are a team to watch from this 11-20 group now that Jaylen Brown has returned from his 8-game hamstring absence. In his first game back he scored 19 points in 23 minutes. Look for the Celtics to make a jump this week.

The Bottom-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
21	Indiana Pacers	1.53%	+3	1.49%
22	Los Angeles Lakers	1.48%	-3	1.74%
23	Sacramento Kings	1.43%	-3	1.73%
24	Cleveland Cavaliers	1.30%	-1	1.57%
25	San Antonio Spurs	1.19%	0	1.21%
26	Orlando Magic	1.18%	+2	1.12%
27	Oklahoma City Thunder	1.14%	0	1.13%
28	New Orleans Pelicans	1.06%	-2	1.21%
29	Detroit Pistons	1.00%	0	1.06%
30	Houston Rockets	0.98%	0	0.97%

A few comments on the Bottom-10:

The Pacers are a bit of an anomaly here at #21. Their stats are closer to the top-10 than the bottom-10 so they are a team worth watching.

The Lakers’ slide continues. Yes, Frank Vogel has not had his full complement of players this year. In addition to the games missed by LeBron, Trevor Ariza and Kendrick Nunn have yet to play this year. Also, Russell Westbrook has 4 triple-doubles but, like in OKC and Washington, there is virtually no correlation between a Russ triple-double and a win.

In Sacramento, Alvin Gentry has been named interim head coach, not the first time that he has had the interim tag. CouchGM has been a Gentry fan since he was the interim head coach in Phoenix in 2008-09. It will not be a surprise if the Kings start playing a seven seconds or less type offense to get more shorts for Harrison Barnes and Buddy Heild. The Kings are currently 8th in the league in pace and 11th in Offensive Rating. Defense is clearly the weakness (25th in Defensive Efficiency) so look for the Kings to shoot more 3s early in the shot clock.

Unfortunately the bottom teams are not likely to change for the foreseeable weeks. Other than waiting for Zion, there is not much reason for optimism in the bottom 5.

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