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NFL Power Rankings November 23, 2021

By Andrew Hales, Assistant CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NFL power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Tuesdays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current Super Bowl probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s Super Bowl probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Arizona Cardinals	12.19%	+1	8.28%
2	Buffalo Bills	9.18%	-1	15.50%
3	New England Patriots	8.36%	+3	4.76%
4	Tennessee Titans	7.11%	0	7.34%
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.53%	+2	4.48%

The Arizona Cardinals have finally made it to their bye week. Somehow, even though Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have each missed the last 3 games with injuries, the Cardinals went 2-1 behind some great play by Colt McCoy. While the schedule hasn’t been terribly hard, 2 of the games were on the road. Bonus tip: the Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games at Seattle. Might as well call it Phoenix North.

Following Arizona are 2 AFC East teams. The Patriots seem to have come from nowhere while the Bills have lost 3 of the last 5. Our model still loves the Bills, but December 6th’s Monday Night game at New England will be HUGE. The rest of the year will be quite the test for the Bills (and our model’s predictive abilities). Their next 5 games are all against current playoff teams, 3 of them coming on the road. This stretch will vault them to Super Bowl expectations or towards a first round road playoff game.

Tennessee is surprising to me. They are the number 1 seed in the AFC and have only 3 losses. Week 1 against the best team in the NFL (Cardinals) is acceptable, but they also lost to the 2-8 Jets and 2-8 Texans. I don’t know what to say or think.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Green Bay Packers	4.89%	-3	8.17%
7	Indianapolis Colts	4.45%	+3	2.91%
8	Baltimore Ravens	4.15%	+1	3.00%
9	Dallas Cowboys	3.91%	-4	6.53%
10	Los Angeles Rams	3.68%	-2	3.49%

Green Bay had a chance to put pressure on the Cardinals, but lost on a last second field goal to the surging Vikings. They may be a game behind the Cardinals, but the Packers schedule is light the rest of the way and they have the tiebreaker so the #1 seed is still very much within reach. This Sunday’s Rams at Packers game will have huge implications for Green Bay’s chances at #1 and also Los Angeles's chances of catching the Cardinals. One team is going to take a massive blow to their chances. This is the game of the week for sure.

Do we need to give more credit to the Colts? Buffalo has had a few inexplicable losses this year, but winning 41-15 on the road is impressive regardless of who you are playing.

On the Playoff Bubble

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Minnesota Vikings	3.08%	+5	2.17%
12	Cincinnati Bengals	2.92%	+3	2.26%
13	Kansas City Chiefs	2.66%	-2	2.83%
14	Los Angeles Chargers	2.45%	+4	1.88%
15	New Orleans Saints	2.31%	-3	2.81%
16	Denver Broncos	1.95%	+1	2.07%
17	Carolina Panthers	1.90%	-4	2.47%

On November 1st the NFC’s playoff teams were the Cardinals, Packers, Bucs, Cowboys, Rams, Saints, and Panthers. Since then those 7 teams have gone a combined 6-13. The Rams and Saints are 0-5 in November! All this to say the Vikings have now climbed into the current standings and the Eagles and 49ers have new life.

Some players play well, go somewhere else and stink, only to come back to the original team and look great again. Cam Newton through 2 games looks like the old MVP-type player he was a half-decade ago when he took the Panthers to the Super Bowl. How this plays out over the last 6 games is yet to be seen, but I wouldn’t want to play them in the opening round of the playoffs.

Below Average

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
18	San Francisco 49ers	1.72%	+4	1.45%
19	Philadelphia Eagles	1.71%	+2	1.49%
20	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.56%	-6	2.31%
21	Seattle Seahawks	1.53%	-2	1.83%
22	Cleveland Browns	1.33%	+1	1.29%
23	Las Vegas Raiders	1.30%	-3	1.75%
24	Washington Football Team	1.17%	+2	1.11%
25	New York Giants	1.13%	-1	1.28%
26	Miami Dolphins	1.09%	+1	1.15%
27	Houston Texans	1.03%	+5	0.90%
28	Atlanta Falcons	1.02%	-3	1.17%

This is the group of teams that you’re starting to see frustrations and rumors. They’re realizing the playoffs are slipping away and the cracks in the foundation are showing. Examples: Pete Carroll storming out of a press conference; Miami questioning if Tua is the long term guy; Giants head coach Joe Judge openly questioning OC Jason Garrett and then firing him today. I’ve got to imagine the Texans are wondering why they won that game. They had the inside track at the #2 draft pick and would have passed Detroit if/when they finally win a game since.

The biggest winners of the last few weeks (thanks to all the NFC losses) are the 49ers and Eagles. They went from having basically zero chance to make the playoffs to now being in a 4 team race for 2 spots. A month ago they both would have taken that chance. The Eagles are one of my picks to sneak in (the Saints are the other team to get in from the NFC). They finish the season purely in the division except for a game at the Jets. The rest of their schedule is @ Giants (3-7), @ Jets (2-8), vs Washington (4-6), vs Giants again, @ Washington again, Dallas. They could finish 5-1 and somehow end the year with 10 wins.

The Less Than 1%

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
29	Chicago Bears	0.97%	+1	0.93%
30	Detroit Lions	0.93%	-1	0.94%
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.93%	-3	0.96%
32	New York Jets	0.85%	-1	0.91%

Detroit may have locked up the #1 draft pick at this point. There’s no QB that seems to be #1 (or maybe even top-5) worthy. Does Detroit keep Goff and trade the pick? He did play in the Super Bowl less than 3 years ago.

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