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NFL Power Rankings November 16, 2021

By Zach Hales, CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NFL power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Tuesdays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current Super Bowl probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s Super Bowl probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Buffalo Bills	15.50%	+1	12.24%
2	Arizona Cardinals	8.28%	-1	14.00%
3	Green Bay Packers	8.17%	+3	4.55%
4	Tenessee Titans	7.34%	-1	7.33%
5	Dallas Cowboys	6.53%	+3	3.58%

Another loss for the Cardinals drops them from the #1 seed in the NFC and the #1 team in CouchGM’s rankings. But the team that passes them in the NFC (Green Bay) is not the team that passes them as the new CouchGM favorite (Buffalo). The Bills and Cardinals have been trading the #1 spot back and forth most of the season. Buffalo looks like by far the best team on paper with both the best offense and defense (by a WIDE margin) by points scored/allowed per drive, the best point differential (also by a wide margin), and the best turnover differential. But they and Josh Allen, for as good as he’s been, are prone to… interesting results, like somehow losing to Jacksonville even though they only allowed 9 points! Winning them all is very rare, but c’mon, man. You can’t score 6 points against the Jaguars. Good thing the next game was against the Jets.

Even so, the gap between the Bills and the #2 Cardinals is currently as big as the gap between the #2 Cardinals and the #27 Dolphins.

The Cardinals still have both a top-5 offense and defense after losing 2 of 3 without Kyler Murray, but with Murray they have the best or second-best offense.

Tennessee doesn’t look as good on paper as the Bills or Cardinals (top-10 offense but 20th defense, below average QB play), but they just keep winning. Which is important if you want to, you know, win it all.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	New England Patriots	4.76%	+5	3.03%
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.48%	-2	4.97%
8	Los Angeles Rams	3.49%	-4	5.09%
9	Baltimore Ravens	3.00%	-2	4.25%
10	Indianapolis Colts	2.91%	+3	2.90%

The Rams had a head-scratching loss to the 49ers yesterday and are one of the week’s biggest losers, even with the splashy OBJ and Von Miller additions. They couldn’t help the offense OR the defense that both got dominated by an average team…

Which at least wasn’t as bad as Baltimore’s 4th quarter meltdown against Miami.

Playoff Hopefuls

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Kansas City Chiefs	2.83%	+11	1.57%
12	New Orleans Saints	2.81%	0	3.03%
13	Carolina Panthers	2.47%	+6	1.85%
14	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.31%	+3	2.04%
15	Cincinnati Bengals	2.26%	+3	2.00%
16	Minnesota Vikings	2.17%	0	2.07%
17	Denver Broncos	1.91%	+6	2.68%
18	Los Angeles Chargers	1.88%	-8	3.29%

Is it time to be nervous because the Chiefs, winners of 4 of the last 5, are back? I’m not sure… The defense is still bad (24th in points allowed per drive) and they are among the worst (30th) in turnover differential. And their 4 wins have come against Washington (not good), New York (not good), Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers (not good), and Las Vegas (decent). Even though they are hot, I wouldn’t buy the Kansas City stock just yet. Next week against Dallas will be a better test.

Below Average

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
19	Seattle Seahawks	1.83%	-10	3.48%
20	Las Vegas Raiders	1.59%	-5	2.34%
21	Philadelphia Eagles	1.49%	+2	1.34%
22	San Francisco 49ers	1.45%	+3	1.21%
23	Cleveland Browns	1.29%	-3	1.72%
24	New York Giants	1.28%	0	1.24%
25	Atlanta Falcons	1.17%	-4	1.57%
26	Washington Football Team	1.11%	+2	0.95%
27	Miami Dolphins	1.15%	+2	0.95%

Seattle is somewhat surprisingly the biggest loser of the week, though the consolation is that Russell Wilson is back. He was possibly the best QB through 4 weeks, so if he can regain that form it will give the Seahawks a big boost. Seattle did only go 2-2 in those games, though, and only 2-4 in all games Wilson has played.

The Less Than 1%

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
28	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.96%	-2	0.98%
29	Detroit Lions	0.94%	+2	0.91%
30	Chicago Bears	0.93%	-3	0.97%
31	New York Jets	0.91%	-2	0.95%
32	Houston Texans	0.90%	0	0.90%

At least the Lions got a tie and won’t go down as the first 0-17 team ever (just the first 0-16-1).

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