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NBA Power Rankings November 14, 2021

By Zach Hales, CouchGM

CouchGM’s weekly NBA power rankings, in order of descending championship probability. Power rankings will be published weekly on Fridays with each week’s update to the model. Listed below is each team's current championship probability, change in ranking vs last week, and last week’s championship probability.

The Top-5

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
1	Golden State Warriors	9.95%	+5	5.13%
2	Utah Jazz	9.47%	-1	13.64%
3	Brooklyn Nets	7.57%	0	6.21%
4	Philadelphia 76ers	7.57%	-2	9.65%
5	Phoenix Suns	4.95%	+2	4.51%

Golden State is one of the biggest risers of the week, seeing their projected record climb to a new league-best of 60-22. I expected them to improve from last season, but not so much so soon. Klay Thompson returning later this year should give an additional boost. They are currently a top-5 team in defensive rating (3rd), offensive rating (1st), net rating (1st), made threes per game (1st) and three-point percentage (4th) and look like a strong championship contender, though they are also in the bottom-10 for strength of schedule so far, so look for them to cool off a little when playing better opponents.

The Jazz lose the #1 spot for the first time in a long time, having been the favorite for most of last season and this season until this week, having lost 4 of their last 5. The big thing to monitor for the Jazz will be 3FG%, as they are only shooting 32.1% so far this season after 38.9% last season.

6-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
6	Los Angeles Clippers	4.85%	-1	5.24%
7	Washington Wizards	4.77%	+14	1.79%
8	Charlotte Hornets	4.13%	+3	3.56%
9	New York Knicks	4.06%	-4	5.29%
10	Chicago Bulls	3.82%	+4	2.63%

Two of my favorite / most interesting teams fall in this tier. Chicago couldn’t have hoped for better from the DeRozan-LaVine duo so far, with both in the ballpark of 25 PPG and 50 FG%. They’ll be a fun team to watch all year.

And the Wizards are this week’s biggest riser, jumping 14 spots from last week and seeing their expected record jump to 53-29 from 41-41 last week. They just keep winning and are now the #1 seed in the east. They did really well to turn John Wall (the worst contract in the league) into Russell Westbrook (almost as bad of a contract, but he at least still plays) and then Westbrook into 2 starters and a former 6th man of the year. The Russell Westbrook experiment is thus far underwhelming in LA, which really shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. Take a look at how a few teams have fared following major point guard trades the last few seasons.

2016-2017

Los Angeles Clippers winning percentage (with Chris Paul): 0.622 / 4 seed

Houston Rockets winning percentage (before Chris Paul): 0.671 / 3 seed

2017-2018

Los Angeles Clippers (without Chris Paul): 0.512 / missed playoffs

Houston Rockets (with Chris Paul): 0.793 / 1 seed

2018-2019

Houston Rockets (with Chris Paul): 0.646 / 4 seed

Oklahoma City (with Russell Westbrook [and Paul George]): 0.598 / 6 seed

2019-2020

Houston Rockets (with Russell Westbook): 0.611 / 4 seed

Oklahoma City (with Chris Paul [and no Paul George]): 0.611 / 5 seed

Phoenix Suns (before Chris Paul): 0.466 / missed playoffs

Washington Wizards (with John Wall): 0.347 / missed playoffs

2020-2021

Oklahoma City (no Chris Paul): 0.306 / missed playoffs

Phoenix Suns (with Chris Paul): 0.708 / 2 seed

Washington Wizards (with Russell Westbrook): 0.472 / 8 seed

Los Angeles Lakers (before Russell Westbrook): 0.583 / 7 seed

2021-2022

Washington Wizards (no Russell Westbrook): 0.750 / 1 seed

Los Angeles Lakers (with Russell Westbrook): 0.538 / 7 seed

Every team that traded Chris Paul got better when he joined and worse when he left. The Wizards got marginally better with Westbrook, and that was mostly due to the fact that they got something for nothing (John Wall didn’t play at all and Westbrook did). To be fair to Westbrook, the season is still young and lots could change (I don’t expect the Wizards to be the #1 seed all season). But I think the Lakers would’ve been better off with the rumored trade for Buddy Hield instead of Westbrook, because Hield is a cleaner fit next to LeBron and Anthony Davis and he still has some go-to scorer upside for when LeBron rests.

11-20

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
11	Milwaukee Bucks	3.80%	-3	4.32%
12	Portland Trail Blazers	3.16%	-2	3.91%
13	Denver Nuggets	3.15%	-1	2.90%
14	Miami Heat	2.69%	-5	3.91%
15	Dallas Mavericks	2.45%	-2	2.72%
16	Los Angeles Lakers	2.37%	-1	2.55%
17	Atlanta Hawks	2.09%	+1	2.21%
18	Boston Celtics	1.89%	+1	2.02%
19	Toronto Raptors	1.85%	-3	2.45%
20	Indiana Pacers	1.75%	0	1.85%

Miami was riding high after their first win over the Jazz on November 6, but followed that up with losses in 3 out of 4, with the only win coming again against the Jazz. A rough week sees them fall out of the top-10.

The Bottom-10

Rank	Team	Current Probability	Change	Last Week Probability
21	Minnesota Timberwolves	1.71%	+2	1.47%
22	Cleveland Cavaliers	1.71%	+5	1.21%
23	Memphis Grizzlies	1.65%	-6	2.29%
24	Sacramento Kings	1.56%	0	1.40%
25	San Antonio Spurs	1.40%	+1	1.22%
26	New Orleans Pelicans	1.30%	-4	1.50%
27	Orlando Magic	1.15%	-2	1.28%
28	Detroit Pistons	1.10%	0	1.12%
29	Houston Rockets	1.07%	0	1.11%
30	Oklahoma City Thunder	1.03%	0	0.97%

Cleveland continues its hot start, winning 2 out of three and 6 out of 7. Evan Mobley is the early front-runner for Rookie of the Year. It seems a little wrong to slot them in at only #22, given that they are 9-5 and the current 4 seed in the East. Plus our model gave them an additional 8 wins this week and now predicts they’ll finish 40-42 after a predicted 19-63 in the preseason, the biggest jump of any team. But I still expect Miami, Philadelphia, New York, and Milwaukee to all finish ahead of Cleveland when all is said and done.

Memphis also had a rough week, losing 3 in a row (and now 4 out of 5). Ja Morant continues to be incredible, though, and my hot take that Ja > Zion is getting colder by the day. Hopefully we get to see Zion back in action sooner rather than later.

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