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Alternate Timeline: What if the Phoenix Suns had drafted Luka Doncic instead of DeAndre Ayton?

By Zach Hales, CouchGM on August 26, 2020

Luka Doncic was drafted with the third pick in the 2018 NBA draft. He was passed over by the Phoenix Suns (#1), Sacramento Kings (#2), and Atlanta Hawks (#3; they selected Doncic but traded his rights on draft night to Dallas for the rights to Trae Young). Now that he is lighting up the playoffs, many Phoenix Suns fans (myself included) wish that he were wearing the purple and orange. Let’s examine how Suns history might be different if they had selected Luka Doncic over DeAndre Ayton and determine whether they would be better off.

We’ll start with a recap of the actual timeline of the 2018 offseason through the current time (first round of 2020 NBA Playoffs). Remember that you can't just swap Ayton with Doncic and leave everything else the same. Lots of other things would have changed as well. Then we’ll follow the timeline beginning with switching Luka Doncic for DeAndre Ayton.

Some rules for the draft - if a player was drafted in the top-5 in reality, they’ll be drafted in the top-5 here. We won’t suggest that Mitchell Robinson, for example, will be drafted top-5 even though he’s top-5 in the draft in win shares. He was a second round prospect then, he’ll be a second round prospect now. No more than 5 draft spot differences. Not everything that is common knowledge now was common knowledge then.

Additionally, I’ll be writing the alternate timelines as I research them, to try to avoid biases. I’ll also do this so that I can’t go look at stats first and choose players that had a good season to sign with the Suns. I’ll look only at what players are available in the price range the Suns had available and choose from that list. I’ll use WAR to help evaluate the team later on. This rule means I can’t look up WAR values before choosing a player to, hopefully to prevent me from inflating the team’s record.

#1 - AYTON TIMELINE

July 19, 2017: Ryan McDonough signs 3-year contract extension and James Jones hired as VP of Basketball Operations

October 22, 2017: Earl Watson is fired as Head Coach. Jay Triano takes over on an interim basis.

November 7, 2017: Eric Bledsoe traded to Milwaukee for Greg Monroe, a protected 2018 first-round pick, and a protected 2018 second-round pick.

2017-2018: The Suns suck and finish the season with a 21-61 (0.256) record.

May 2, 2018: Igor Kokoskov hired as head coach.

June 21, 2018: The Suns draft DeAndre Ayton #1 overall, trade with Philadelphia (Miami’s #16 pick, used on Zhaire Smith, and the unprotected 2021 Miami first round pick for #10, used on Mikal Bridges), then select Elie Okobo with the 31st pick.

July 2, 2018: The Suns agree to a 1-year, $15 million contract with Trevor Ariza, effectively using all of their available cap room.

August 31, 2018: The Suns trade Brandon Knight and Marquese Chriss to the Rockets for Ryan Anderson and De’Anthony Melton.

October 8, 2017: Ryan McDonough is fired as GM. James Jones and Trevor Buckstein are in charge on an interim basis.

October 17, 2018: DA and the Suns beat Luka and the Mavs on 121-100 on opening night. Devin Booker is a baller (35 points [12/19 FG, 6/10 3FG, 5/6 FT], 7 assists, 4 rebounds). Ayton has a strong first game (18 points [8/11 FG, 2/2 FT], 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 1 block) while Luka struggles (10 points [5/16 FG, 0/5 3FG, 0/2 FT], 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 turnovers).

November 3, 2018: Tyson Chandler bought out by the Suns. He signs with the Lakers for the rest of the year.

December 17, 2018: The Suns complete a trade with the Wizards, sending Trevor Ariza for Kelly Oubre, Jr. and Austin Rivers. The trade was a mess. Rivers is waived so he can join a playoff contender (signs with Houston, who is the #4 seed in the west).

February 6, 2018: The Suns trade Ryan Anderson to the Miami Heat for Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington. Ellington is waived so he can join a "contender" (signs with Detroit who makes the playoffs as the #8 seed in the east - LOL).

2018-2019 season: The Suns still suck. They are somehow worse than last year, finishing 19-63 (0.232). The Mavericks finish tied for second-worst in the west with the Grizzlies and Pelicans at 33-49 (0.402).

April 11, 2019: The Suns name James Jones GM.

April 23, 2019: The Suns fire Igor Kokoskov after one season.

May 3, 2019: The Suns hire Monty Williams as head coach.

May 28, 2019: The Suns have the worst record in the league but somehow get the #6 pick in the NBA draft, missing out on the opportunity to draft Zion Williamson.

June 20, 2019: The Suns agree to trade TJ Warren and the 32nd pick in the 2019 draft to the Pacers in a salary dump. Warren goes on to have a solid year for the Victor Oladipo-less Pacers.

June 20, 2019: The Suns trade back from #6, sending the pick (used on Jarrett Culver) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Dario Saric and the #11 pick (used on Cam Johnson). The Suns also trade the protected Milwaukee first round pick that was acquired in the Eric Bledsoe trade to the Boston Celtics for the #24 pick (used on Ty Jerome) and Aron Baynes.

June 30, 2019: The Suns agree to a three-year, $51 million contract with Ricky Rubio.

July 3, 2019: The Suns agree to trade Josh Jackson to the Memphis Grizzlies for Kyle Korver (waived) and Jevon Carter (became a fan favorite in Phoenix). The Suns also include De’Anthony Melton and 2020 and 2021 second round picks.

2019-2020 Season: The Suns are much improved with Monty Williams and Ricky Rubio in town. Devin Booker makes his first All-Star team. The season is soured when DeAndre Ayton is suspended for 25 games for a banned substance. Injuries derail the team as well. Tyler Johnson sucks and is waived. Even so, the Suns make a run at the #8 seed in the west, going 8-0 in the bubble after the season restart and falling short of the playoffs by 0.5 games in the standings. The Suns finish 34-39 (0.466), their best finish since 2014-2015. It is a season of what-ifs.

The Suns have been bad. The model of dysfunction. Some thoughts:

What was the point of firing McDonough AFTER the draft and free agency? When James Jones was hired, it seemed obvious that the plan was for him to take over. Why not just fire McDonough right after the season ended, and then let James Jones choose his coach and be in charge of the draft and free agency?

Signing Igor Kokoskov and not drafting Luka seems dumb. It either signals that Igor didn’t believe in Luka enough to convince the team to draft him or that Igor was not a strong enough presence.

Why did they sign Ariza in the first place? Point guard would have been a bigger need instead of wings (had Josh Jackson and Mikal Bridges from the two most recent drafts). Another reason why drafting Luka would’ve made sense.

James Jones’ inexperience showed A LOT. He does well in establishing a players’ environment, but he has given away too many things: got rid of Austin Rivers/Wayne Ellington/Tyson Chandler/TJ Warren/Tyler Johnson for exactly nothing in return.

Ayton is a dope for using a banned substance and getting suspended.

BUT...

The Suns absolutely won the Cam Johnson/Dario Saric for Jarrett Culver trade. Culver looked overmatched while Cam looks like he belongs. Dario was solid, if unspectacular, for the Suns. But that’s fine. The Suns just need more NBA-level players.

James Jones may not be skilled in navigating the cap, but he might be good at recognizing players. And he’s better at communicating and leadership and relationships than either of McDonough or Kokoskov. He’s helping to improve the perception of the organization.

Monty Williams is much better than Igor Kokoskov. Things are looking up now. The bubble was an immensely positive experience for the team and also for the perception of the team.

The state of the Suns is the best it has been since Steve Nash left a decade ago. But could it be better?

#2 - LUKA TIMELINE

With the first pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, the Phoenix Suns select… Luka Doncic!

How the rest of the draft would have played out is uncertain, but we’ll guess it goes:

#2 – Ayton to Sacramento

#3 – Young to the Hawks

#4 – JJJ to the Grizzlies

#5 – Bagley to the Mavericks

Everything else stays the same.

So the Suns leave the draft with the plan to start Luka at PG and now have a hole at C, though Tyson Chandler is still on the roster. The plan will be to address this in free agency.

In free agency, the real Suns spent all their space on Trevor Ariza. Since bigs would now be the biggest (nice) need, that’s what we target. Available free agent bigs included (rounded to the nearest million):

Nikola Jokic (RFA) – signed for with Denver for 5 years, $147 million

Clint Capela (RFA) – signed with Houston for 5 years, $90 million

Jusuf Nurkic (RFA) – signed with Portland for 4 years, $48 million

Derrick Favors (UFA) – signed with Utah for 2 years, $38 million

DeAndre Jordan (UFA) – signed with Dallas for 1 year, $23 million

Since the Suns had approximately $15 million available, Jokic and Jordan are out of their price range. Nurkic is inside the range, but because he is an RFA, I’d guess Portland would match whatever Phoenix could have offered.

Capela and Favors both signed for more than $15, but not by so much that I wouldn’t expect Phoenix to be able to make it happen. I assume Houston matches for Capela, but Phoenix could have prioritized Favors and made it happen for the same deal Utah gave him. Perhaps coming to join Kokoskov, who had been an assistant in Utah, works in Phoenix’s favor (nice, again).

DeMarcus Cousins was available, but I doubt 1) that the Suns would have pursued him and 2) that he would have wanted to come, even for more money than the $5 million he signed with the Warriors for.

The Suns still probably trade Brandon Knight and Marquese Chriss, so all else this offseason is equal. The plan was probably to fire McDonough for Jones all along, so that still happens just before the season, still painting the picture of dysfunction. Here’s how the roster stands:

PG: Luka Doncic - Isaiah Canaan

SG: Devin Booker - Troy Daniels

SF: TJ Warren - Mikal Bridges

PF: Ryan Anderson - Josh Jackson

C: Derrick Favors - Richaun Holmes

Daniels didn’t play much, which probably doesn’t change. The other 9 guys make up the regular rotation.

The roster was in a pretty bad state in the actual timeline, mostly due to attempting to have various G-Leaguers play point guard. This is helped immensely by adding Luka.

The other big roster consequence is that without Ariza, the Suns do not trade for Kelly Oubre, Jr., who was an important piece of the Suns both in ‘18-’19 and in ‘19-’20. This saves the embarrassment of the fiasco that the process of making that trade was, but it also subtracts Oubre, who was a big part of changing the energy and play of the team in the later half of the season and coming into the next season.

We also don’t know whether they complete the Ryan Anderson for Tyler Johnson trade. Let’s assume they do still complete this trade, since it was the work of James Jones. This replaces Isaiah Canaan with Tyler Johnson, moving Josh Jackson into the starting lineup and Dragan Bender to the #2 PF. So for half the year the rotation is as above, and for half we replace Isaiah Canaan with Tyler Johnson and Ryan Anderson with Dragan Bender.

A look at Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from FiveThirtyEight can give us an estimate of how good this team would have been (I searched each player individually on the 2020 player projections page and recorded the actual ‘19 WAR).

Luka: 5.9 WAR

Booker: 3.9 WAR

Warren: 1.7 WAR

Anderson: -0.4 WAR*

Favors: 5.3 WAR (Ayton 0.5 WAR)

Canaan: -0.5 WAR*

Johnson: 1.1 WAR*

Bridges: 3.6 WAR

Jackson: -0.1 WAR

Holmes: 0.9 WAR

Bender: -1.3 WAR*

Kokoskov: 0 wins**

(Kelly Oubre, Jr.: 2.6 WAR)

Team Total (rounded): 20 Wins

*Anderson, Canaan, Johnson, and Bender combine for -1.1 wins. Since all were in the rotation for only half a season, we only count -0.5 wins.

**The value of a head coach is explored here. The study is a few years old, but the conclusion is that a first year head coach generally subtracts 1.5 wins from the team. He was there in reality, so his contributions (positive or negative) are already accounted for by the Suns' actual record for the season. So we we'll just count him as 0 wins in the adjustment below.

This gives us 20 wins. This WAR analysis probably undersells how good the team would actually be. Luka was worth nearly 6 more wins than all of the Suns’ point guards combined and Favors was worth nearly 5 more than Ayton, but we lose Oubre’s contributions.

So we’ll add 11 wins for Luka and Favors and subtract 1 from half a season of Oubre from the Suns’ actual total of 19 wins to get 29 wins. For reference, the Mavericks finished Luka’s first season with 33 wins.

Preseason odds had the real Suns around 29 wins. So the real Suns drastically underperformed. Would these alternate Suns also underperform?

Part of that is due to injury, part of it is due to coaching. We know in hindsight that Coach Kokoskov’s shortcomings were in leadership and communication, as the team never bought in and he lost the locker room, leading to his firing. I’d wager that this team would be good enough that Igor would not be fired. After all, part of why they bring him in in this alternate timeline is because of Luka. They aren’t going to fire the number one pick’s coach after one season that is bad but still 10 wins better than the previous season.

In the real 2018-2019 standings, 29 wins would put the Suns… last place in the west. Even 10 wins better than their actual performance doesn’t change their position in the conference. It does, however, place them one sport below the Hawks in the league, so 5th worst in the league. But Dallas would likely be even worse with Bagley instead of Doncic, so we’ll say the Suns sit at 6th worst heading into the draft.

We can’t say how the draft lottery would have turned out, so we’ll assume the mostly likely outcome and have the Suns stay at 6th, which, surprise surprise, is the same position they were in following the actual draft lottery. We’ll assume they make the same trade and move back from #6 to #11 and draft Cam Johnson and acquire Dario Saric.

I’d suspect the trade of TJ Warren to Indiana and the trade of the protected Milwaukee pick to Boston for Ty Jerome and Aron Baynes still happen. Josh Jackson is still a dope, so he and De’Anthony Melton are also traded to Memphis for Korver (waived) and Jevon Carter.

Heading into free agency, here’s how the depth chart stands:

PG: Luka Doncic - Jevon Carter

SG: Devin Booker - Tyler Johnson

SF: Mikal Bridges - Cam Jonhson

PF: Dario Saric

C: Derrick Favors - Aron Baynes

Bender, Holmes, Canaan, and Daniels all expired. PF depth is still lacking. The Suns signed Rubio for 3 years, $51 million, so we have roughly $17 million to work with to get a PF. Available free agents are (rounded to the nearest million)…

Harrison Barnes (UFA) - signed with Sacramento for 4 years, $85 million

Bojan Bodganovic (UFA) - signed with Utah for 4 years, $73 million

Julius Randle (UFA) - signed with New York for 3 years, $63 million

Thaddues Young - signed with Chicago for 3 years, $43 million

Barnes and Randle are all too expensive. Bogdanovic signed for an average value of $18 million/year, so the Suns could probably make it happen, but I doubt it given the Saric acquisition. I think Young is a likely target. The Suns also signed Frank Kaminsky in reality with the Mid Level Exception, and we’ll assume that also happens

Another option would be to sign another backup guard for around $3 million. Choices include:

TJ McConnell (UFA) - signed with Indiana for 2 years, $7 million

Quinn Cook (UFA) - signed with Los Angeles Lakers for 2 years, $6 million

Austin Rivers (UFA) - signed with Houston for 2 years, $4.5 million

Rivers is unlikely, given that in reality they traded for and waived him. That trade didn’t occur in this alternate timeline, but I think it still tells us that the Suns won’t pursue and/or he’s not interested. Either McConnell or Cook could have happened, I suppose. Cook would prefer the Lakers and LeBron, I’m sure. So let’s say they sign McConnell.

That leave the depth chart looking like this heading into the 2019-2020 season:

PG: Luka Doncic - TJ McConnell

SG: Devin Booker - Tyler Johnson

SF: Mikal Bridges - Cam Jonhson

PF: Dario Saric - Thaddeus Young

C: Derrick Favors - Aron Baynes

We know Tyler Johnson wasn’t very good and Baynes missed time with injury. Kaminsky is the third big, same as in reality. Carter had moments, but he is pretty limited to defense only, but with TJ McConnell he’s now the third PG. Cam Johnson shined in the bubble. We avoid the 25 game Ayton suspension. Tyler Johnson probably still gets waived. We have better big depth with Young behind Saric, but worse wing depth with no Oubre. The guard depth is about the same.

Let’s see how this team rates by WAR, this time using FiveThirtyEight’s Raptor metric.

Luka: 9.9 WAR

Booker: 6.0 WAR

Bridges: 4.7 WAR

Saric: 1.6 WAR

Favors: 3.9 WAR (Ayton: 2.9 WAR)

McConnell: 1.8 WAR

T. Johnson: -0.4 WAR

C. Johnson: 1.7 WAR

Young: 0.5 WAR

Baynes: 0.9 WAR

Kokoskov: 0 wins*

Team Total (rounded): 31 Wins

*Now that Kokoskov is in his second year, he’s a net neutral, according to the same study referenced earlier.

We still think the WAR analysis undersells the team. This team rates 11 wins better by WAR than the 2018-2019 team, so let’s assume they perform 11 wins better than the 2018-2019 team (we gave them 28 wins), which would be 39 wins in a full 82 game season (39-43, 0.475).

The year was shortened due to the coronavirus pandemic and the actual Suns played 73 games. The 39-win pace at 73 games translates to 35 wins (35-38), only one win better than the actual finish. This would have put the Suns tied with Portland. The real Mavericks would have been much worse without Luka, so we can assume they aren’t in the playoffs. We’ll say the Suns and Trail Blazers are tied for 7th with the Grizzlies 0.5 games behind in 9th. If we accept the tie breakers as they were in our reality, the Suns would own the tie-breaker over the Trail Blazers and own the 7th seed while the Blazers and Grizzlies play the play-in matchup for 8th.

It’s also fair to assume that, given the Mavericks' improvement from Luka's first to second year of 14 wins, that this team would improve even more than this. However, the Suns were starting from an extreme low, with very few NBA level players, and we already gave them an 11 win improvement. Also, I’m not convinced that Kokoskov would have been a strong enough coach to elevate the team much higher. Plus, it would take 6 more wins to move up to 6th. I don't think this team has that in them. So they could be worse, but I don't think they'd be 6 wins better. Luka is still playing the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs.

Let's see where we stand.

#1 - AYTON TIMELINE

Suns just miss the playoffs. Top-5 players are, alphabetically, Ayton, Booker, Bridges, Oubre, Rubio. Coached by Monty Williams, whose leadership, along with Booker’s rise to stardom, has been important in changing the perception of the franchise around the league.

#2 - Luka TIMELINE

Suns are the 7th seed in the playoffs, but only one win better in record than the actual timeline. Top-5 players are, alphabetically, Booker, Bridges, Doncic, Favors, Saric. Coached by Igor Kokoskov. We know that Kokoskov’s leadership was poor. Since they made the playoffs, he likely stays around a while longer, but who knows how much longer. We also don’t know how playing alongside Doncic affects Booker, but they are both really good so I imagine they would figure it out.

#3 - BONUS TIMELINE

Since we are rewriting history anyway, let's go back and make a few extra changes.

First, we do not sign McDonough to the contract extension. We still bring James Jones in as VP of basketball operations.

We fire McDonough immediately after the 2017-2018 season ends and name James Jones GM. This saves us the embarrassment of the McDonough firing situation. Also, Jones is now free to choose his coach one season sooner. A few of the coaches available at the time that we consider:

Lloyd Pierce - assistant in Philadelphia > Head Coach with Atlanta

Dwane Casey - Head Coach in Toronto > Head Coach in Detroit

Mike Budenholzer - Head Coach in Atlanta > Head Coach in Milwaukee (Interviewed with Phoenix in reality)

Nick Nurse - Head Coach in Toronto’s G-League > Head Coach in Toronto

Nurse would obviously be a top candidate, given what we know now, but he was probably Toronto’s choice all along. Also, nobody knew at the time that he would be this good (see our rule above).

The Suns interviewed Budenholzer but weren't willing to pay him. Perhaps James Jones could have convinced Server to pay up for a quality coach, like he did the next year with Monty Williams. I believe he could have, more so than McDonough. So we hire Budenholzer, which I expect would lead to better performance than these projections. He could unlock Doncic and Booker much like he has helped Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In the draft, we take Luka #1.

We make the same trade for Mikal Bridges. McDonough is the one that actually made this trade, so perhaps Jones wouldn’t have been able to pull it off. But Bridges fits the mold of experienced college players with a good three-point shot that we have seen Jones target in the past (future?). And depending on who you believe, Sarver was the one who wanted to trade up for Bridges. So we assume that Jones is able to make the trade (If you disagree with that assumption, we take Donte Divincenzo instead).

In the second round, we do not take Elie Okobo. A backup PG is still a need, but so is a big now that we don't have Ayton. We choose either Jalen Brunson, who should have been the pick over Okobo in the first place, or Mitchell Robinson, who is becoming a solid player for New York. Let's go with Brunson. He fits the James Jones mold.

In 2018 free agency, we sign Favors. He’s a “young veteran” like Jones said he would target (and we have Jones in charge of this free agency now).

This leaves our roster similar to the Luka Timeline, but with Brunson replacing Canaan.

PG: Luka Doncic - Jalen Brunson

SG: Devin Booker - Troy Daniels

SF: TJ Warren - Mikal Bridges

PF: Ryan Anderson - Josh Jackson

C: Derrick Favors - Richaun Holmes

We’ll make the same in-season trade, sending Anderson for Jonhson.

How do we rate by WAR?

The only changes are Brunson and Budenholzer from Timeline #2.

Luka: 5.9 WAR

Booker: 3.9 WAR

Warren: 1.7 WAR

Anderson: -0.4 WAR*

Favors: 5.3 WAR (Ayton 0.5 WAR)

Brunson: 1.8 WAR*

Johnson: 1.1 WAR*

Bridges: 3.6 WAR

Jackson: -0.1 WAR

Holmes: 0.9 WAR

Bender: -1.3 WAR*

Budenholzer: 5 wins**

Team Total (rounded): 27 Wins

*Anderson, Canaan, Johnson, and Bender combine for -1.1 wins. Since all were in the rotation for only half a season, we only count -0.5 wins.

**Even though Budenholzer is a first year coach, he’s a far better coach than Kokoskov. We won’t apply the penalty for a first year coach. In his first year in Milwaukee (2018-2019, the same year that will be his first with the Suns in Alternate Timeline #3), the Bucks improved from 44 wins to 60 wins. He probably won’t be worth 16 wins here. We’ll say he’s worth 5 wins.

In Timeline #2, the Suns were rated at 20 wins by WAR and we gave them 28 games. This team is rated 7 wins better by WAR, so we’re adding 7 wins (2 for Brunson over Canaan, 5 for Coach Budenholzer), which puts us at 35 wins.

35 wins is better than only Dallas, Memphis, and New Orleans in the West and only good enough for 9th worst in the league. So we draft #9

We can’t trade back from #9 to #11 and pick up Saric in the process, so we just stay at #9 and still take Cam Johnson. Rui Hachimura and Cam Reddish, who went #9 and #10 in reality, are available to us now when they weren't before, but I doubt Jones wouldn't take them over Johnson. Another option for this pick is Brandon Clarke, but he went #21 in the actual draft, so it would be too much of a reach. Plus, Jones’s guy is still on the board.

We still make the Josh Jackson trade (still a dope), so we get Korver and Carter for Melton and Jackson. We don’t waive Korver, though. We also still make the trade for Jerome and Baynes.

We do not make the TJ Warren trade. That trade was James Jones's work, but he did it to free up money to sign Rubio. He doesn't need to do that now. Maybe he would do the trade to free the money to pursue Bojan Bogdanovich. We'll just keep Warren.

So going into free agency, this is how the roster stands.

PG: Luka Doncic - Jalen Brunson

SG: Devin Booker - Tyler Johnson

SF: Mikal Bridges - Cam Johnson

PF: TJ Warren

C: Derrick Favors - Aron Baynes

So, again, the biggest need is a big. With Warren’s $11 million still on the books, we only have about $6 million to work with. Here are some choices in that price range (rounded to the nearest million):

Demarre Carroll (UFA) - signed for 3 years, $21 million with San Antonio

Jabari Parker (UFA) - signed for 2 years, $13 million with Atlanta

Dorian Finney-Smith (RFA) - signed for 3 years, $12 million with Dallas

JaMychal Green (UFA) - signed for 2 years, $10 million

Richaun Holmes (UFA) - signed with Sacramento for 2 years, $10 million

We’ll re-sign Holmes. We don’t have bird rights, so we can’t go over the cap to re-sign him and this uses basically all our room. We also have the MLE, which was used on Kaminsky in reality. We won’t do that since we signed Holmes. We’ll offer it to Justin Holiday, who signed for the MLE with Indiana. Another young vet with a three point shot.

PG: Luka Doncic - Jalen Brunson

SG: Devin Booker - Justin Holiday

SF: Mikal Bridges - Cam Johnson

PF: TJ Warren - Richaun Holmes

C: Derrick Favors - Aron Baynes

We still have Tyler Johnson and we know he was bad, so we’ll assume we still waive him. It’s probably not fair to think that Jones would get something in return for him, even with the extra offseason of experience that he gets here in Timeline 3.

So how does this team do? In terms of WAR, we have...

Luka: 9.9 WAR

Booker: 6.0 WAR

Bridges: 4.7 WAR

Warren: 4.4 WAR

Favors: 3.9 WAR

Brunson: 2.6 WAR

Holiday: 5.2 WAR

Johnson: 1.7 WAR

Holmes: 2.4 WAR

Baynes: 0.9 WAR

Budenholzer: 7 wins*

Team Total (rounded): 44 Wins

*In Budenholzer’s second year with the Bucks (2019-2020) the Bucks won 56 games (56-17, 0.767) in the shortened season, a 63-win pace. So they improved by 3 wins (60 wins the year before). The article we cited previously has a coach improving from negative 1.5 wins in year one to net neutral in year two, so we’ll go in the middle and say Budenholzer is worth an additional 2 wins this year (Budenholzer was worth 5 wins in year 1 so he’ll be worth 7 wins in year 2).

This team rates a whopping 17 wins by WAR better than last year’s team, which was rated at 27 wins. We gave that team 35 wins. 17 more wins than that would be 52. That feels like too much, especially in the West. Justin Holiday being worth 5.2 also seems too high.

But then again, the Mavericks improved from 33 wins in Luka’s first year to a 47 win pace in year 2, a 14-win improvement. And now without Luka, we assume the Mavericks are bad.

Also, this does look like a really good team. For the first time, this team doesn’t have any negative players. We have 10 better than replacement level players in the rotation.

So let’s say the Suns improve by 14 wins (same improvement as the Mavericks from Luka’s first to second year) from last year’s 35 wins, so a 49-win pace (49-33, 0.597). In the 73-game shortened season, that translates to 44 wins (44-29). This puts the Suns at… 7th place in the West, 0.5 games behind the Jazz, Thunder, and Rockets (44-28), and only 0.5 games out of 4th in the West. Again playing the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the playoffs

Even if we think the 49-win pace, or 44 wins in the 73-game shortened season, is too much, it would take a decrease in 10 wins to drop to the 8th seed. We don't think they'd be any better, but we certainly don't think they'd be 10 wins worse, so the Suns are firmly in the 7th seed.

(As an aside, I also went back to see how this would change if we did trade TJ Warren to free cap space and pursue Bojan Bogdanovich. Bogdanovich was 2.2 WAR, so 2 less than Warren. I would've guessed he'd be better than Warren. That signing would take all our cap room, so we couldn't re-sign Holmes. We could probably bring back Holmes for the MLE. We'd have to choose Holmes [2.4 WAR] or Holiday [5.2 WAR], but since we'd need the big more we probably choose Holmes. The MLE is basically the same value he signed for with Sacramento, so we'll assume he accepts. So we're rated 7 wins worse [5 for Holiday, 2 for Bogdanovich instead of Warren] - not enough to drop us out of the 7th seed. If he doesn't accept, we go to Holiday and we're only 2 wins worse. In either case, I like the roster with Warren better.)

So we end up in the same playoff position as in Timeline #2, but with a better record. I’m also much more confident about the team due to the coaching of Budenholzer over Kokoskov.

CONCLUSIONS

The league is driven by star players more than coaches. Given the choice, I would go back and take Luka Doncic, even though I also would prefer to have Monty Williams coaching the team instead of Kokoskov. Having Budenholzer would be better than Kokoskov, too, but that is a harder alternate reality to imagine since we only MIGHT have been able to get Budenholzer if James Jones was in charge. We DEFINITELY could have drafted Doncic.

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